Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found winners GOING THE DISTANCE (9-1) and LINE OF FORCE (3-1) on Thursday and has five stats-based selections on Friday, June 21st. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
REDCAR 2.15
TITANIUM (system – Grant Tuer, 3yo handicap debutants, colts/geldings only)
Grant Tuer has an eight from 25 record with three-year-old colts/geldings on their handicap debuts and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £27.13 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winner only 3.33, A/E = 2.41). TITAINIUM caught the eye when a 33-1 fifth of 12 in a 6f maiden here last time, doing best of those to come from off the pace, and the patiently-ridden sixth, Cash In, was only just beaten at 50-1 on his next start. The step up in trip should suit and the switch to handicap company can also bring about improvement.
REDCAR 2.50
ROCKING TREE (system – Kodiac, first-time blinkers, turf)
Progeny of the sire Kodiac have a 26 from 197 record (13.2%) in turf Flat races for a profit of £39.90 to a £1 level stake at SP. In races over 5f-7f only the score is 20 from 142 (14.1%) for a profit of £63.90. ROCKING TREE, well drawn in stall 5, could improve for the headgear and is worth a speculative punt.
MARKET RASEN 3.15
RIVER ROBE (system – Dan Skelton, stable switchers in handicap hurdles)
Dan Skelton has a fine record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers, especially in handicap hurdles. He’s won with 43 of the 145 qualifiers (29.7%) for a profit of £18.90 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who ran over hurdles last time were 35 from 102 for a profit of £37.78. RIVER ROBE has had a wind operation since her sixth place in a novices’ handicap hurdle in April for Max Young and can make a winning debut for her new connections.
ASCOT 5.05
NOCTURNAL (system – James Ferguson handicappers)
So far this year, James Ferguson has a 14 from 55 record in handicaps (25.5%) for a profit of £32.45 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 7.75, A/E = 1.81). NOCTURNAL won well at Wolverhampton last time to take her score since her debut to 11 (2-2) and looks well drawn towards the stands’ side in the Sandringham Stakes.
NEWMARKET 6.03
BINIORELLA BAY (system – New Bay 2yos, 7f+, turf)
Juvenile progeny of the sire New Bay are 39 from 184 (21.2%) when racing over 7f or further on turf for a profit of £22.14 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 25.62, A/E = 1.52). BINIORELLA BAY ran green when a close second at Lingfield on his debut last month and can go one better.
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