Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has three stats-based selections on the all-weather at Southwell and Newcastle on Friday, January 20th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
SOUTHWELL 1.20
ISLE OF WOLVES (system – top four from the front over 1m2f+ on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface last time out)
It remains very difficult to win from the front on the round course (trips of 1m2f or further) on the all-weather at Newcastle and those who finish in the top four under forcing tactics often make good bets at next time of asking. Had we backed all 245 qualifiers since the Tapeta surface was introduced we’d have found 52 winners (21.2% strike-rate) and made a profit of £83.45 to the usual £1 stake. ISLE OF WOLVES, fourth of eight in an 1m4f handicap at Newcastle last time, might find Southwell kinder to his prominent running style.
NEWCASTLE 4.15
LIKE A LION (system – Tim Easterby, first-time blinkers, Flat handicaps)
Since the beginning of 2012, Tim Easterby is 23 from 194 when using first-time blinkers in handicaps on the Flat (turf or all-weather) for a profit of £56.63 to a £1 level stake at SP and LIKE A LION, who caused a 28-1 surprise over 7f here on his penultimate start, could be worth a small interest to bounce back from his subsequent disappointing effort over the same trip and track. His patient tactics are ideal for Newcastle and the step up to a mile could suit.
NEWCASTLE 6.15
LATEST EDITION (system – Karl Burke, second-time out 3yos, all-weather)
LATEST EDITION could only finish fifth of seven at Southwell on last month’s debut, but Karl Burke’s filly was a big price (28-1) and kept on well after running green and meeting trouble to finish five lengths behind the winner. Her trainer is 12 from 56 with second-time out three-year-olds on the all-weather since 2010 and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £94.75. She looks a likely improver for that initial experience and can get off the mark.
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