The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes is one of the big highlights on QIPCO Champions Day at Ascot this Saturday and if the betting is to be believed it looks a straight Irish head-to-head between Paddington & Tahiyra.
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Paddington & Tahiyra To Lock Horns In All-Irish Ascot Head-to-Head
Two of the big talking horses of the 2023 flat season – Paddington and Tahiyra – will again put their reputations on the line in Saturday’s Group One Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot, in what looks a straight fight out between the Irish raiders.
The Dermot Weld yard will be looking for their first success in this race with Tahiyra and after a top season, that got better after a close second in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket – she’s going to have plenty of backers.
Since that silver medal to Mawj in the Guineas, Tahiyra has won three Group One races on the spin – Irish 1000 Guineas, Coronation Stakes and Matron Stakes, while the form of that Newmarket run back in May was also given a boost with Mawj winning the QEII Challenge Cup Stakes at Keeneland (USA) last weekend.
Tahiyra will also return to Ascot on Saturday, the scene of her big Royal Ascot win in the Coronation Stakes in June (watch below), and being a 3 year-old filly will get a handy weight allowance of the older horses and males in the race.
It’s hard to knock her chance, but the one big negative is since 1988 we’ve only seen two winning fillies – Persuasive and Minding – while the expected softer ground for her also isn’t ideal, with all her best form on a quicker surface.
Aidan O’Brien Eyeing His Fifth QEII Stakes Win
In contrast to Dermot Weld, trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes four times over the years, with the first coming with the classy George Washington in 2006 and his most recent in 2016 with Minding. His other winners were Rip Van Winkle and Excelebration.
Paddington will be the latest horse trying to land the marmalade for O’Brien as his high-class 3 year-old is, like Tahiyra, also a Royal Ascot winner this season. He took the St James’s Palace Stakes in impressive fashion at the Berkshire track in June (watch below) – a win that gave O’Brien his 83rd Royal Ascot success.
Since that Ascot win, Paddington has mopped up the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown and the Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, but after a run of seven straight wins the bubble burst when only managing third in the Juddmonte International Stakes at York at the end of August.
Those willing to forgive that run will point to the trip (1m 2 1/2f), as that was the furthest he’d gone, while others might suggest a busy summer campaign finally caught up with him.
Regardless, if any (or both) of these theories are true, his connections have combatted each one by giving him 2 months off to freshen up and are also dropping him back to a mile – a trip he’s yet to lose over (4-from-4).
Of, course, it’s not just a two-horse race with the consistent Nashwa, who finished ahead of Paddington in the Juddmonte (2nd), plus the useful French horse Big Rock and the Frankie Dettori-ridden Inspiral running too.
However, you feel the bulk of the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes betting will revolve around the big two in the market – Paddington and Tahiyra, so which camp are you in?
See our Queen Elizabeth II Stakes tip below.
When Is The 2023 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes?
🕙Time: 3:05pm
📅Date: Saturday 21st Oct 2023
🏇Racecourse: Ascot
💰: Winner: £655,709
📺 TV: Sky Sports / ITV
🎲 Odds: Paddington 7/4 | Tahiyra 7/2 | Nashwa 5/1 | Big Rock 6/1 | Facteur Chevel 12/1
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Tips: Paddington To Get Back To Winning Ways
It’s hard to fault the form and the improvement of Tahiyra this season and she’ll also get a handy 3lbs from her main rival Paddington.
That said, her trainer Dermot Weld has already come out and said she might NOT even be sent over if the Ascot ground gets really soft of heavy.
However, it’s also difficult to ignore the record of fillies in this race – just two winners since 1988 – and with that in mind PADDINGTON gets the nod.
The O’Brien runner won his Ascot race (1m 40.74 secs) in just under a second quicker time than Tahiyra (1m 41.69 secs), but Paddington has to give away 3lbs, so really, based on the times, there is not a lot to go on here.
However, the softer ground that Ascot is expecting is likely to suit Paddington a bit better having won on heavy and soft (twice), while Tahiyra’s form with give still reads okay (1-2) but did taste defeat in more testing conditions in the Guineas at Newmarket.
Plus, with Paddington clearly not getting home over 1m 2 1/2f last time at York, the big drop back to a mile – a trip he’s 4-from-4 over – is another huge bonus and this Group One has also been won by a 3 year-old colt four times in the last 5 years.
Finally, the return to Ascot is a plus for Paddington as well, while his form on ‘soft’ and ‘heavy’ ground read 1-1-1.
It was back at Ascot in June that we probably saw his best showing, when winning the St James’s Palace Stakes by an easy 3 3/4 lengths and beating the 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean in the process.
This winning distance was his second biggest margin behind a maiden success at the Curragh back in October, but his biggest winning gap in a Group race.
Sat, 21 Oct 2023 , 15:20 GMT • Ascot • Champions Day
(Note: Odds are subject to change)
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Trends To Find Ascot Winner
We’ve also listed the main Queen Elizabeth II Stakes trends here, which you can apply to the 2023 runners and put history on your side by finding the best profiles based on previous winners of the Ascot race.
- 20/21 – Raced at least 3 times that season
- 19/21 – Aged 3 or 5 years-old
- 19/21 – Finished in the top three in their last race
- 18/21 – Raced at Goodwood, Longchamp or Leopardstown last time out
- 18/21 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
- 18/21 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
- 16/21 – Favourites placed
- 17/21 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
- 13/21 – Won their latest race
- 11/21 – Raced at Ascot previously (6 won)
- 10/21 – Won at least 7 times previously
- 9/21 – Favourites that won
- 7/21 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
- 4/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
- 3/21 – Trained by John Gosden (4 in total)
- 3/21 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
- Since 1988 only 2 Filly winners (Persuasive 2017 & Minding, 2016)
- 2022 Winner: Bayside Boy (33/1)
- The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2
- 3 of the last 9 winners were French-trained
- 11 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 2-8 (inc)
- Since 2011: Horses from stall 2 and 7 have won 5 of the last 12 runnings
2023 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Betting
See below the latest Queen Elizabeth II Stakes betting from BetMGM.
- Paddington 7/4
- Tahiyra 7/2
- Nashwa 4/1
- Big Rock 13/2
- Chaldean 10/1
- Facteur Cheval 12/1
- Angel Bleu 20/1
- 40/1 Bar
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New cust only. 3 days to claim & 7 days to place a qualifying bet to receive 4x Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder, 1 x £10 Acca and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Exclusions apply. Stake not returned. T&Cs apply.
New cust only. 3 days to claim & 7 days to place a qualifying bet to receive 4x Free Bets: 1 x £10 Horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder, 1 x £10 Acca and 1 x £10 Football. 7 day expiry. Exclusions apply. Stake not returned. T&Cs apply. |
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(Note: Odds are subject to change)
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Recent Winners
- 2022: Bayside Boy 33/1
- 2021: Baaeed 2/1
- 2020: The Revenant 5/1
- 2019: King Of Change 12/1
- 2018: Roaring Lion 2/1 fav
- 2017: Persuasive 8/1
- 2016: Minding 7/4 fav
WATCH: Bayside Boy winning the 2022 QEII Stakes
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