The last January transfer window saw Premier League clubs spend over £800m on new winter recruits. Which unsurprisingly, is a record for England’s elite division.
Premier League January Spending
However, where was all the money spent? As we head towards the final hours of the 2024 winter spending period, it is clear to see that transfer activity has failed to live up to that of 12 months ago.
One year ago, Chelsea‘s deals for Enzo Fernandez and Mykhailo Mudryk accounted for almost £200m alone. Benoit Badiashile also moved to Stamford Bridge for a cool £35m and on top of that, Liverpool spent £45m on Cody Gakpo and Arsenal bought Leandro Trossard, Jorginho and Jakub Kiwior for a total of almost £60m.
It didn’t seem like a big deal at the time and the likes of Bournemouth were also having a go – they signed Dango Ouattara for £20m without too much notice.
This winter has been far more bleak. Tottenham made an early spend of around £25m on Radu Dragusin but no other deals are coming close to levels we have seen previously, and loan agreements have been an area of focus for most clubs looking to recruit.
Financial Fair Play
It is not that clubs don’t want to strengthen – it’s actually been a busy month behind the scenes. From conversations with agents, recruiters and intermediaries it sounds like clubs have been working hard and negotiating as normal – yet the deals that have come through in the past just have not been possible.
Profit and Sustainability Regulations are a major factor in this. For the first time it really does feel like Premier League clubs are understanding that overspending will lead to punishments down the line.
PSR is the new version of Financial Fair Play, and is designed to make sure that club accounts have not made a loss greater than £105m across the previous three seasons.
We have seen Everton suffer real life consequences in recent months – being hit with a huge ten-point deduction – and we still wait to discover what will happen with the charges filed against Manchester City.
Nottingham Forest also look like they could face a similar punishment to the Toffees.
From a financial stand point, clubs are balancing their books in a way that is more cautious than previously, and as such, there is a willingness to hold onto their transfer funds until summer.
2024 Summer Transfer Window
But the reasons for a lack of spending are not just as one dimensional as that. Heading into the January window, insiders at clubs and at agencies were warning of a slow month of business for another reason: The level of competition feels different in the Premier League right now.
At the top end of the table three of the top four spots seem secured by Liverpool, City and Arsenal. With one Champions League position left to fight for clubs are having to weigh up the possibility of actually securing it – and whether a big transfer push is likely to lead to the rewards of elite European football.
In the past Manchester United, Chelsea and Newcastle would have had a push but they are all more than ten points off the pace set by Aston Villa, and also now have a strong Tottenham side to contend with.
Each of those clubs also have their own issues internally to deal with too, in terms of finances and squad management and as such they are not chasing success by throwing money at the team.
It’s a similar story at the bottom – the threat of relegation does not feel real for many big teams. And the hope of survival isn’t looking great for the bottom three.
Sheffield United and Burnley need a miraculous run to survive – and most expect Luton Town to go down too, despite a strong effort so far to defy the odds.
A year ago we saw Leeds spend over £45m in January and Southampton splashed out £55m in a bid to save their season.
It didn’t work for either and there is no sign that any side at the bottom would attempt to buy their way out of trouble now.
Everton’s ten-point deduction adds some doubt to their safety but the teams above them – Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, Brentford and Fulham – do not feel the level of danger that might require a spending panic in this window.
So here we are…the transfer window is closing soon and the deadline will most likely pass by with a whimper. The good news? The summer window is expected to be a belter as Man United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Newcastle all plan to bring back a glimmer of the good old days.
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