Newmarket Racing Tips & Trends: 1-2-3 Best Bets, Fri 7th Oct 22

Secret State in the Noel Murless Stakes at Ascot is our horse racing NAP of the Day for 30 September 2022
Secret State in the Noel Murless Stakes at Ascot is our horse racing NAP of the Day for 30 September 2022
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Newmarket racing tips on Friday 7th October, as the ITV cameras are showing five LIVE races at Flat racing’s HQ on the opening day of their Future Champions Fixture – these include the Group One bet365 Fillies’ Mile (3:35) and the Challenge Stakes (3:00).

Here at SportsLens, we take you through the best of the Newmarket races, on Friday with our quickfire 1-2-3 selections, plus the key trends to apply to each contest.

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RELATED: Fillies’ Mile 2022: Commissioning To Land The Newmarket Money


itv racing

Newmarket Horse Racing Tips & Trends | 1-2-3 Best Bets For ITV Racing, Friday 7th Oct 22

See our quickfire 1-2-3 Newmarket horse racing best bets for the ITV races on Friday, 7th October.


RELATED: Cesarewitch Handicap 2022 Betting Trends For Newmarket Race


1.50 – Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV4

1. PRINCE OF PILLO 2. Squealer 3. Crispy Cat

PRINCE OF PILLO @ 6/4 with VirginBet gets the verdict here having impressed in winning three of his opening four races for the Keith Dalgleish yard. The most recent of those successes was at Ayr last month, when taking a Listed race by an easy 3 1/2 lengths. A step up into a Group 3 here requires more but deserves his chance and is the top-rated in the race.

Crispy Cat can go well too with Ryan Moore riding, having been a fine fourth in the G2 Flying Childers last time at Doncaster, while the Nigel Tinkler Squealer looks a sprinter on the up after winning its last two and is also considered.

KEY TRENDS

  • 17/19 – Had won over 5f previously
  • 14/19 – Won at least twice or more before
  • 14/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
  • 14/19 – Rated 98 or more
  • 14/19 – Ran within the last 30 days
  • 14/19 – Had raced 5 or more times
  • 13/19 – Foaled in March or later
  • 11/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
  • 11/19 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
  • 9/19 – Filly winners
  • 7/19 – Raced at Ayr last time out
  • 7/19 – Won their last race
  • 6/19 – Winning favourites
  • 4/19 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
  • 2 of the last 5 winners came from stall 3
  • 4 of the last 5 winners came from stalls 3 or lower

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2.25 – Godolphin Lifetime Care Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV4

1. LOSE YOURSELF (e/w) 2. Small Oasis 3. Believing

LOSE YOURSELF (e/w) @ 5/1 with VirginBet was very impressive when winning on debut here at Newmarket at the end of August – getting the job done by an easy 2 1/4 lengths that day on soft ground over this 7f trip. Therefore, we know she stays well and the Ralph Beckett yard have also freshened her up with 42 days off. She holds an entry in the Group One Irish 1,000 Guineas for next season, plus the Beckett team have won this race twice in the last 18 years.

Of the rest, one of the more experienced runners – Believing – was a close second at Group Three level the last twice and her running style suggests this step up to 7f will suit, while the Irish raider Small Oasis caught the eye in winning well last time at the Curragh.

KEY TRENDS

  • 17/18 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
  • 17/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
  • 16/18 – Had between 1-2 wins already
  • 16/18 – Had between 1-3 career runs
  • 15/18 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
  • 13/18 – Won last time out
  • 12/18 – Foaled in March or later
  • 12/18 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
  • 10/18 – Unplaced favourites
  • 11/18 – Had won over 7f or further before
  • 9/18 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
  • 8/18 – Irish bred
  • 6/18 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
  • 5/18 – Winning favourites
  • 2/18 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
  • 2/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
  • 2/18 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of last 5 winners)
  • 2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
  • 2/18 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of last 7)

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3.00 – Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Challenge Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV4

1. SACRED 2. Pogo 3. Umm Kulthum

SACRED @ 5/4 with VirginBet was super-impressive when winning last time out at Newbury (6 1/2 lengths) – bouncing back to form to win the Listed Duty Free Cup Stakes. She’s back up in grade here into a Group 2, but that confidence booster 3 weeks ago for this Haggas horse will bring her into the race in tip-top order, while being a CD winner here at Newmarket the switch to this track is fine.

The consistent Pogo has had a busy season but is holding his form well and his second to Kinross last time out at York was given a boost at the weekend with that horse winning in France. Umm Kulthum also returned to form last time at Doncaster with a close second in the Sceptre Stakes and is another proven course winner here.

KEY TRENDS

  • 19/19 – Won a Listed or Group race previously
  • 19/19 – Won over 7f previously
  • 19/19 – Raced 3 or more times that season
  • 17/19 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
  • 16/19 – Won 3 or more times previously
  • 16/19 – Winners from stall 10 or lower
  • 15/19 –  Raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
  • 13/19 – Officially rated 113 or higher
  • 13/19 – Priced 7/1 or lower
  • 11/19 – Placed in their last race
  • 10/19 – Favourites placed
  • 8/19 – Won at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
  • 7/19 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Goodwood (4) last time out
  • 6/19 – Won their previous race
  • 6/19 – Favourites that won
  • 1/19 – Filly/Mare winners

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3.35 – Bet365 Fillies´ Mile (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV4

1. COMMISSIONING 2. Library 3. Polly Pott

COMMISSIONING @ 8/13 with VirginBet can give trainer John Gosden another winner in this juvenile Group One, after winning 4 of the last 18 runnings, including 12 months ago with the classy Inspiral. This 2 year-old has won both starts to date over 7f and was very impressive last time in the G2 Rockfel Stakes here at Newmarket. The step up to a mile looks well within range – she can land the three-timer and looks an exciting prospect for the yard for next season in the big 3 year-old mile races.

Of the others, the improved Polly Pott has been a real fairy tale story – winning her last four and improving 38lbs in the process. She won the G2 May Hill Stakes last time at Doncaster at a big price and there’s every chance she’s not stopped her upward curve just yet.

Finally, with the powerful Aidan O’Brien yard having won this race three times since 2014 and an Irish stable landing 5 of the last 8 renewals, then it’s hard to ignore his Library, with Ryan Moore riding.

Yes, she was beaten in a Listed race at Leopardstown last time as favourite, but the softer ground that day might not have been ideal, having won well on a good surface the time before. She could also improve for the step up to a mile and can go best of those at bigger prices

KEY TRENDS

  • 18/18 – Finished in the first three last time out
  • 18/18 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
  • 17/18 – Yet to win a Group 1
  • 16/18 – Finished in the first two last time out
  • 16/18 – Foaled in Feb or later
  • 16/18 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
  • 14/18 – Had won between 2-3 times before
  • 14/18 – Favourites that finished in the top three
  • 13/18 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
  • 12/18 – Won last time out
  • 12/18 – Had won a Group race before
  • 11/18 – Foaled in Feb or March
  • 9/18 – Winning favourites (or joint)
  • 8/18 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
  • 7/18 – Irish-trained winners
  • 7/18 – Irish bred
  • 4/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
  • 4/18 – Won by trainer John Gosden
  • 3/18 – US bred
  • 2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
  • 5 of the last 8 winners have been Irish-trained

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4.10 – Bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap Cl2 (3yo) 1m4f ITV4

1. HAUNTED DREAM (e/w) 2. First Ruler 3. La Yakel 

HAUNTED DREAM (e/w) @ 14/1 with VirginBet can give the bookies a fright in the final ITV race on the afternoon. This Ed Dunlop runner has been running consistently all season and was last seen winning on the AW at Southwell. Up just 3lbs for that here, but is into a higher grade and actually has 13lbs less in racing weight this time too.

Jockey William Buick has a good record in this race – winning the pot three times since 2017 – so his mount First Ruler can go well too. Trainer Charlie Appleby has three in the race for Godolphin, so the fact Buick has picked this one should be noted.

The trio is made up with the William Haggas runner – La Yakel, who heads here on a three-timer after wins at Southwell and Ascot. He’s only raced four times so will have scope for more in the locker and looked to have a bit more in-hand when scoring last time at the Berkshire track.

KEY TRENDS

  • 8 previous runnings
  • 7/8 – Had won at least twice before
  • 6/8 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
  • 5/8 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
  • 5/8 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
  • 5/8 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 3/8 – Ran at Haydock last time out
  • 3/8 – Ridden by William Buick
  • 2/8 – Priced 8/1 in the betting
  • 2/8 – Came from stall 17
  • 2/8 – winning favourites

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RELATED: Dewhurst Stakes 2022 Betting Trends For Newmarket Race


Newmarket Race Times and Names | Friday 7th Oct 2022

  • 1:50 – Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (2yo) 5f ITV4
  • 2:25 – Godolphin Lifetime Care Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV4
  • 3:00 – Thoroughbred Industry Employee Awards Challenge Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo+) 7f ITV4
  • 3:35 – bet365 Fillies’ Mile (Group 1) Cl1 (2yo) 1m ITV4
  • 4:10 – bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo) 1m4f ITV4
  • 4:45 – Godolphin Under Starters Orders Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (GBB Race) Cl3 (2yo) 7f RTV
  • 5:15 – Newmarket Pony Academy Pride Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f RTV

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