Use our Newmarket ITV Racing trends on the third day of the 3-day July Festival on Saturday 15th July 2023. You can use these trends to put history on your side and highlight the best profiles of horses based on previous winners.
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Newmarket ITV Racing Trends: July Festival Day Three, Saturday 15th July 2023
It’s day three of the Newmarket July Festival this Saturday (15th July 2023) and we’ve four of the seven races LIVE on ITV Racing. It’s the July Cup (4:35) that headlines the final day of action at flat racing’s HQ as all eyes will be on the Royal Ascot Commonwealth Cup winner Shaquille.
So, to help you find the winners, we’ve got the main Newmarket ITV Racing trends at this week’s July Festival – you can use these stats to find the best profiles of past winners and putting history on your side.
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Newmarket ITV Racing Trends: July Festival Stats on Saturday 15th July 2023
Not on ITV this race, but we thought we’d still cover it. Horses drawn in 10,11 and 13 have a fair record with 2 wins each in the last 14 – so Mottisfont, Rage Of Bamby and Ceanna tick this stat. With 10 of the last 14 winners rated between 83-93 this is another thing to look for – this would, however, rule out the top two in the card already mentioned – Rage Of Bamby and Ceanna.
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won the race twice since 2016, so his Dancing Goddess is interesting too, but really with ALL of the last 14 winners having run in the last 6 weeks this is a negative against the Godolphin runner, who was last out 73 days ago.
All things considered a chance is taken on the Hughie Morrison runner Mottisfont, who ticks a lot of the main stats, has a good draw in 10 and sports the first-time visor too.
Bedford Lodge Hotel & Spa Fillies’ Handicap Trends
2.15 – Bedford Lodge Hotel & Spa Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f
- 14/14 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
- 13/14 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
- 13/14 – Didn’t win last time out
- 13/14 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
- 11/14 – Had won over at least 7f before
- 10/14 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
- 10/14 – Rated between 83-93 (inc)
- 8/14 – Placed favourites
- 6/14 – Drawn in stalls 10, 11 or 13 (2 each)
- 4/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
- 2/14 – Trained by the Hannon yard
- 2/14 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
- 2/14 – Winning favourites
2.50 – bet365 Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV
Another race the Charlie Appleby yard like to win – landing the spoils twice in the last 5 years. They run proven course winner Highbank. Horses carrying 9-4 or less have done well too, so this is a stat for the top four on the card to overcome – including the already mentioned Highbank.
The William Haggas runner Tafreej is interesting after winning well at Yarmouth last time out, while at bigger prices Milteye and Nopoli could surprise off low weights and higher draws.
bet365 Mile Trends
- 19/21 – Had won over 7f or further previously
- 17/21 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
- 16/21 – Had 2 or more runs that season
- 11/21 – Unplaced in their last race
- 9/21 – Favourites unplaced
- 9/21 – Winners from stall 8 or higher
- 5/21 – Won their last race
- 5/21 – Winning Favourites
- 2/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
- 2/21 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (2 of the last 5)
- The Richard Hannon yard have won 3 of the last 10 runnings
3.25 – Bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV
The Aidan O’Brien runner City Of Troy will be a popular pick here after a nice win at the Curragh on debut earlier this month. However, a chance is taken on Godolphin’s Great Truth with the Charlie Appleby yard having won this race 4 times in the last 7 years.
This 2 year-old was a very easy winner on debut at Leicester at the end of June and with some a Gimcrack entry later in the year too this colt by Dubawi, who also won this race during his career, looks the better value.
Of the rest, the Hannon yard are another that have done well in this race over the years, so their Haatem is worth a saver too.
Superlative Stakes Trends
- 20/21 – Won over at least 6f previously
- 19/21 – Placed in their last race
- 18/21 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
- 16/21 – Won their latest race
- 14/21 – Won by either a March or April foal
- 13/21 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
- 11/21 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
- 10/21 – Favourites unplaced
- 6/21 – Winning Favourites
- 4/21 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
- 4/21 – Winners from stall 3
- 5/21 – Trained by Richard Hannon
- 2/21 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 9 runnings)
- 2/21 – Trained by Mick Channon
- 3/21 – Ridden by William Buick
- Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 4 of the last 7 runnings
RELATED: ITV Racing Tips For Newmarket July Meeting On Saturday: Day Three 1-2-3 Best Bets
4.00 – bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV
The hardest race on the card to unravel but the trends do tell us that 4 and 5 year-olds have the best records, while horses from stall 14 or higher and those carrying 9-4 or less in weight have fared well too. With this in mind, the Ryan Moore-ridden Biggles has a decent profile and despite coming 9th last time it was in the 29-runner Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot – but did come first in his group that he was racing in.
Course winner, Streets Of Gold is another of interest with draw 10 giving this Eve Johnson Houghton runner options, while at a big price the Charlie Johnston runner The Gatekeeper has many stats in his favour to warrant a small interest with the veteran Joe Fanning riding.
Bunbury Cup Trends
- 20/21 – Won over 7f previously
- 19/21 – Raced 3 or more times that season
- 15/21 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
- 13/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
- 12/21 – Winners from stall 14 or higher
- 11/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
- 11/21 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
- 10/21 – Placed in their last race
- 10/21 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
- 9/21 – Horses from a double-figure stall that 1st, 2nd and 3rd
- 4/21 – Favourites (inc joint and co)
- 3/21 – Trained by Richard Fahey
- 4/21 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
- 2/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
- 8 of the last 12 winners came from double-figure draws
- Motakhayyel won the race in 2020 and 2021
4.35 – Pertemps Network July Cup Stakes (British Champions Series And Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV
Onto the big race of the 3-day meeting as some of the best sprinters around do battle for the £356k top prize. Horses aged 5 or younger have won a massive 95% of the last 21 runnings so this is not ideal for the older horses in the race – Kinross, Khaadem, Art Power and Emaraaty Ana.
Running at Royal Ascot last time is a plus, which most of the runner fit – but Azure Blue doesn’t – while trainer Aidan O’Brien has a fine record in the race with five wins over the years – he runs Little Big Bear, who needs to bounce back from being beaten in the Commonwealth Cup last time.
But it’s the horse that took Little Big Bear’s scalp last time that is the pick – Shaquille. This Julie Camacho runner fluffed the start last time but still came back into the race to record a remarkable success. This talented colt has now won 6 of his 7 career starts and looks the value call despite being the likely favourite.
You feel that if he was trained by one of the bigger yard, he might even be odds-on here.
July Cup Trends
- 20/21 – Aged 5 or younger
- 19/21 – Had won over 6f before
- 17/21 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
- 16/21 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
- 16/21 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
- 16/21 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
- 16/21 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
- 12/21 – Placed last time out
- 10/21 – Ran last time out in either the King’s Stand Stakes or Diamond Jubilee
- 10/21 – Unplaced favourites
- 8/21 – Won their previous race
- 5/21 – Winning favourites
- 4/21 – Irish-trained winners (O’Brien trained 2 of the last 5 winners)
- 3/21 – Filly winners
- 2/21 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
- 1/21 – French-trained winners
- The average winning SP in the last 12 years is 7/1
- Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
- Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times before (1999, 2001, 2010, 2018 & 2019)
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