Use Andy Newton’s Lincoln Handicap trends 2024 to help find the winner of Saturday’s big Doncaster race. You can use the key Lincoln Handicap stats to whittle down the runners and highlight the best profiles based on past winners.
So, read on and we’ll reveal the key trends to have in your corner for the first big race of the new flat turf season.
Lincoln Handicap Trends to Help You Find the Winner
The Lincoln Handicap, this Saturday at Doncaster races, is the traditional curtain-raiser race to the new flat turf season.
There will be a maximum of 22 runners heading to post in search of the £77,310 first prize, which is run over a mile for horses aged 4+.
Let’s look at some of the main Doncaster stats in a bit more detail – which can hopefully point you in the direction of the winning horse.
Lincoln Handicap Stats
✅ 19/20 – Aged 6 or younger
✅ 18/20 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
✅ 17/20 – Won over at least 1m
✅ 16/20 – Won between 2-4 times
✅ 15/20 – Drawn in stall 9+
✅ 15/20 – First run of the flat season
✅ 14/20 – Winning distance – 1 length+
✅ 13/20 – Favourites Unplaced
✅ 12/20 – Returned a double figure price
✅ 11/20 – Aged 4 years-old
✅ 10/20 – Officially rated between 95-100
✅ 10/20 – Finished first or second last time out
✅ 9/20 – Ran at Doncaster before
✅ 8/20 – From the top 3 in the betting
✅ 8/20 – Won last time out
✅ 8/20 – Ran at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
✅ 6/20 – Placed horses from stall 12 (2 winners)
✅ 5/20 – Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
✅ 4/20 – Favourites (just 1 in the last 10 runnings)
✅ 3/20 – Trained by William Haggas
✅ 2/20 – Trained by Richard Fahey
✅ 2/20 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
✅ 2/20 – Trained by John Gosden
✅ 2/20 – Ridden by James Doyle (2 of last 4)
✅ 2/20 – Ridden by Benoit De La Sayette (2 of last 3)
✅ 10 of the last 13 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4
✅ Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 (or more) since 1986
✅ 7 of the last 9 winners aged 4 or 5 years-old
✅ The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 14/1
✅ Migration won the race in 2023
✅ Johan won the race in 2022
What Date & Time Is The 2024 Lincoln Handicap?
📅Time/Date: 3:35pm (Saturday 23rd March 2024)
🏇Racecourse: Doncaster
💰 Purse/Winner: £77,310
📺 TV: ITV4 / SkySports Racing
19 Of The Last 20 Lincoln Handicap Winners Were Aged 6 Or Younger
The first place to start if you want to narrow down your search for the 2024 Lincoln Handicap winner is the age. Yes, 12 months ago, Migration defied this trend, winning as a 7 year-old. However, it still remains that 19 of the last 20 winners (95%) were aged 6 or younger.
Most will fit the bill here, but we can still rule out some.
4 year olds have by far the best record too – they’ve won 11 of the last 20 runnings (55%), while 7 of the last 9 winners (78%) were aged 4 or 5.
This would be a negative for the older horses in the race – Dutch Decoy, Revich, Hieronymus, plus past winners – Johan and Migration.
90% Of Recent Winners (last 20) Carried 9st 4lbs or Less
Yes, another Lincoln trend that the 2023 winner Migration kicked into touch – winning with 9st 9lbs. But despite this we’ve still seen a massive 90% of the last 20 winners (18) carry 9st 4lbs or less.
While, sticking with the weight trend, it could also pay to know that 10 of the last 13 winners were weighted between 9-0 and 9-4.
With 50% of the last 20 winners officially rated between 95-100. In fact, since 1986 only one winner has carried 9st 10lbs or more, which would be a negative for the recent winners of the race again – Migration (9-13) and Johan (9-8).
Look For Horses With Between 2-4 Past Wins
Next up is to circle any horses that have won between 2-4 races before. This suggests the winners have experience in getting their head in front, but also might not be totally exposed to the handicapper yet, with more improvement in the locker.
Despite winning as a 7 year-old, in 2023, Migration also ticked this stat – having only had four previous career victories.
RELATED: Andy Newton’s LAY OF THE DAY – one horse to take on each day.
What About Repeat Winners?
Migration defied some of the key trends 12 months ago to win the race and could be back to defend his title.
However, how many champs have successfully defend their crowns in this race? The answer is not many.
Only two horses have won the race in back-to-back years – Ob (1906 and 1907) and Babur (1957 and 1958).
Migration will be trying to join that list, while we could also see the 2022 winner Johan back for more – no horse has ever regained the Lincoln.
75% Of the Last 19 Winners Drawn in Stall 9 Or Higher
The draw can play a big part too. In the last 20 runnings a massive 15 winners have come from stalls 9 or higher.
Backed up again in 2023, with the winner Migration coming from stall 12.
It could also pay to note that horses from stalls 12 and 16 have been placed in 11 of the last 20 renewals (3 winners).
Those drawn low (1-8) are Navagio (1), Mr Professor (2), Chazzesmee (3), Parlando (4), Awaal (5), Farhh To Shy (6), Thunder Ball (7) & Hieronymus (8).
Winning Form Over At Least a Mile Is Essential
Being run over a mile, then a larger chunk of the 22 runners will already have winning form over this trip. Therefore, we are probably not going to find many to knockout here. But it’s still worth a look when the final runners are out with 17 of the last 20 winners ticking this stat.
Respect A Good Recent Run
With 40% of the last 20 Lincoln winners having won their last race this can help narrow your search too, while 50% of the last 20 also finished in the top two last time out.
The Lincoln is also one of the first flat turf races of the new season, so it’s no shocker that 15 of the last 20 winners also took this off a long break. Still, something to note though as fitness from the AW hasn’t always been an advantage.
4 Winning Favourites in The Last 20 Runnings
Four winning favourites in the last 20 runnings might not look like a great return at first glance – but it’s still a 20% strike-rate, in a race that has 22 runners.
But it seems the market leaders either win or bomb out completely as 13 of the last 20 favourites were also unplaced (65%).
40% of the last 20 also came from the top three in the betting. Liberty Lane and Awaal are currently fighting out the favourites berth.
Lincoln Handicap Recent Winners
- 2023 – MIGRATION (18/1)
- 2022 – JOHAN (28/1)
- 2021 – HAQEEQY (9/2)
- 2020 – Cancelled (Covid)
- 2019 – AUXERRE (5/2 fav)
- 2018 – ADDEYBB (5/1)
- 2017 – BRAVERY (20/1)
- 2016 – SECRET BRIEF (12/1)
- 2015 – GABRIAL (12/1)
- 2014 – OCEAN TEMPEST (33/1)
- 2013 – LEVITATE (20/1)
Lincoln Handicap Betting Odds
See below the latest 2024 Lincoln Handicap betting odds that you can use at the best horse racing betting sites. We’ve listed the top 10 in the betting, from the 22 runners.
- Awaal 4/1
- Liberty Lane 9/2
- Chazzesmee 7/1
- Blues Emperor 12/1
- Lattam 14/1
- Migration 14/1
- Mostabshir 14/1
- Johan 16/1
- Navagio 16/1
- Raadobarg 16/1
Note: Others on request and odds are subject to change.
WATCH: Migration winning the 2023 Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster
Add Sportslens to your Google News Feed!
