The unfolding Premier League season has undoubtedly been one of the most unpredictable in recent memory, with brand new title challengers, unforeseen European hopefuls, and a remarkable relegation battle that will almost certainly come down to the final day. Pre-season prophecies have been relatively easy to predict in recent years, but how do Opta’s 2022/23 supercomputer predictions compare to the current table?
Opta’s 2022/23 Supercomputer Predictions
Title Challengers
Before the season began, Opta’s supercomputer crunched the numbers and landed on another ferocious tussle for the title between Liverpool and Manchester City, as has been the case in three of the last four seasons.
Liverpool, who lost out on the title in 2021/22 by a solitary point, were handed the largest percentage chance way back in August with 49.7%, while the champions followed in a very close second with 47%.
The next-best according to Opta was Tottenham (1.81%), who enjoyed a late resurgence the season prior and had many observers pegging them as potential title challengers under Antonio Conte.
Their North London rivals, who had let Champions League football slip from their grasp in the final stages of last season, were given less than a 1% chance as winning the title – as we now know, the supercomputer could not have been more wrong.
Fast-forward to the time of writing, Arsenal have topped the table for the vast majority of the season, and can open up a seven-point gap with Manchester City against Southampton on Friday. However, consecutive 2-2 draws have allowed the champions back into the race, and a crunch fixture between the frontrunners at the Etihad on 26th April may well be decisive in the race for the trophy.
Despite the Gunners’ lead at the summit, Opta have taken Manchester City’s iron-clad run-in record into account, as well as their impeccable form as of late, to arrive at a title-winning chance of 53%, compared to Arsenal’s 47%.
Elsewhere, Liverpool find themselves all the way down in eighth – a far cry from their pre-season percentage chance of 49.7%. They will also need to make up serious ground if they are to secure Champions League football, while Opta’s third-favourites Tottenham sit just outside the top four having lost 10 games; the second-most in the top half.
Top Four
As mentioned, Liverpool represent the biggest losers when comparing to Opta’s pre-season predictions, for both the title and their pursuit of European football.
Having secured Champions League qualification for the the past six seasons, the very real possibility of missing out underlines their hugely underwhelming performances up to this point.
The misery is further compounded by the fact that Opta gave them a 99.28% chance of finishing in the top four last summer – the Reds are currently nine points adrift.
Elsewhere, Chelsea’s monstrous spending spree in the summer signalled a dangerous intent to the rest of the league, but the Todd Boehly era has already resulted in three different managers, operational losses of over £200 million, and a very real possibility of a bottom half finish.
This spectacular downfall is made all the more depressing for Blues fans given Opta handed them a 62.46% chance of a top four finish before the start of the season.
At the other end of the spectrum, Newcastle are without doubt the biggest climbers.
Eddie Howe has transformed the Magpies from easy targets to defensive titans, and they have conceded the least goals in the league up to this point. A late charge towards the top-half last term indicated a promising season this time around, but not many would have foreseen a push for Champions League.
Not least Opta, who gave them just a 4.93% chance.
Relegation
As mentioned, the survival battle this season is perhaps the most unpredictable narrative, as we approach 2022/23’s final chapter.
Luckily for Opta, any of the bottom eight clubs could potentially face the drop, so their predictions are slightly more accurate, comparative to further up the table.
Although Bournemouth are far from safe, they have secured three wins in their previous five to peel themselves away from the drop zone, and move six clear of 18th place. As of the 18th April, the Cherries were given just a 1.6% chance of relegation.
Elsewhere, the supercomputer’s Nottingham Forest prediction could prove to be shrewd one, with the Reds wallowing in the relegation places having failed to win in almost three months.
With a 74.4% chance as of this week, they currently rank as second favourites for the drop behind Southampton (93.6%), who were given just a 34% chance prior to the start.
Opta can certainly be forgiven for failing to list Leicester in their relegation estimations, but their spectacular downfall from European challengers to 19th place leaves them three points from safety. Having predicted a ninth-placed finish for the Foxes, Opta now list them as fourth-favourites to be relegated.
Opta’s Predicted Table 2022/23
- Liverpool
- Manchester City
- Tottenham Hotspur
- Chelsea
- Manchester United
- Arsenal
- West Ham United
- Newcastle United
- Leicester City
- Aston Villa
- Brighton & Hove Albion
- Crystal Palace
- Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Everton
- Leeds United
- Brentford
- Southampton
- Fulham
- Nottingham Forest
- Bournemouth
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