Expected goals. Expected assists. Progressive passes. These are all telltale signs of the threat players can pose to any given opposition, and serve as excellent indicators for certain passages of play. But what if we could combine all of these metrics to arrive at a comprehensive stat that measures creativity on the ball, as well as effective movements off it? Devised by football analytics and data visualisation tool Soccerment, their Expected Offensive Value Added, or ‘xOVA,’ does just that.
How xOVA Works
According to Soccerment, the xOVA metric is a tool that effectively measures the total attacking output of a player, including everything from line-splitting passes to darting runs, in order to arrive at their overall contribution to chance creation.
In an exert on their website, they outline the formula used to calculate the eventual figure – it reads: “We combine non-penalty Expected Goals (‘npxG’, from which we also subtract the associated xG from direct free-kicks) and Open-Play Expected Assists (‘opxA’).
“In order to fully measure the player’s individual contribution, we then subtract from this total the Expected Assists they received, thus measuring the offensive value that the players add with respect to that received from their teammates.”
xOVA essentially measures the creation of chances through shots and passes, not the actual outcome of those chances, while the removal of set-piece stats associated with free kicks and corners for example, eliminates a bias towards players who take them.
xOVA = (non-penalty xG + opxA) – xA received
Top 5 Players With The Highest xOVA
Stylistically, xOVA leaders include a diverse range of players, from deep lying dribblers such as Lionel Messi and Kevin De Bruyne, to out-and-out target men in the mould of Erling Haaland. Ultimately, their contribution, whether it be through link-up play, dangerous passes or successful ball carries, are encompassed in their final score.
Below you can find a breakdown of players with the highest xOVA across Europe at this moment in time.
5. Rafael Leao – AC Milan
11 goals and eight assists this season for AC Milan has seen Rafael Leao’s stock increase leaps and bounds, as a whole host of Europe’s elite ready themselves for a bidding war.
With an xOVA of 9.32, he ranks in the very top percentile of players. Operating as an inverted winger, the Portuguese phenomenon ranks lower for successful crosses, and his style is weighted more towards non-penalty xG and expected assists, which both rank in the top 2% of players.
4. Vinicius Jr – Real Madrid
Despite Los Blancos enduring a stuttering season domestically, they remain firmly in contention for a second successive Champions League trophy, thanks in no small part to the dynamism of their front line.
36 involvements in 44 appearances has propelled Madrid’s mesmeric winger Vinicius Jr right into the conversation for best wide players in world football, and his xOVA of 10.16 ranks him fourth overall.
At 22, he is also the youngest player on this list, but as you can see from his polar chart below, his maturity is reflected in his comprehensive output. Aside from tallying an impressive goal involvement return, the Brazilian is most comfortable when utilising his fleet-footed abilities, one-on-one with opposition defenders, and both his non-penalty xG and expected assists rank within the top 1.5%.
3. Mohamed Salah – Liverpool
By his lofty standards, Mohamed Salah has endured a less productive season than we have grown accustomed to in recent years, but he remains Liverpool’s shimmering light in a season shrouded in doubt and uncertainty.
The vast majority of the Egyptian’s overall xOVA of 11.68 is made up of non-penalty xG, where he ranks in the top 0.5% of players. For a player whose perceived struggles are well documented this year, he has the same amount of goals as Bukayo Saka, and more than the likes of in-form Ollie Watkins and formerly free-scoring Aleksandar Mitrovic.
2. Kevin De Bruyne – Manchester City
With an xOVA of 12.43 this season, Kevin De Bruyne just misses out on top spot.
Manchester City‘s beating heart has been at the centre of their success, despite Erling Haaland grabbing all the headlines. The Belgian has an incredible 13.04 expected assists this term, which ranks 0.3 behind overall leader Lionel Messi, but his open play xA stands at 11.19 which is a big contributor to his overall xOVA.
As evident in the chart below, his high-scoring total stems from a staggering playmaking ability, encompassing everything from successful ball carries to threatening passes into the final third.
1. Lionel Messi – PSG
The most productive player in football at this moment in time, according to Soccerment’s xOVA metric, is PSG’s Lionel Messi.
Hot off the press of an iconic World Cup victory, the Argentine has shown little signs of slowing down as he approaches the twilight of his career. His role has changed slightly over the past few seasons however, and while he isn’t scoring 90-some goals in a calendar year anymore, the chart below shows his stupendous contribution to all aspects of PSG’s attacking play.
Currently, he ranks in the top 1% for the following metrics; expected goals, expected non-penalty goals, expected assists, expected open play assists, and of course, the very top of the tree for xOVA with 14.72.
It is nigh-unfathomable that Parisian fans are booing him after the club’s recent struggles, and his staggering tally of 37 goals involvements in 34 games this season is an indisputable return.
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