According to Opta’s supercomputer relegation predictions, Southampton are the most likely to face the drop having been stuck to the foot of the table for the vast majority of the season, but it is Everton who experienced the biggest increase in their estimations this gameweek.
Opta’s Supercomputer Relegation Predictions
The bottom five clubs at the time of writing all fell to defeat over the most recent gameweek, and although Everton find themselves one position above the drop zone, they are level on points with 18th-placed Nottingham Forest having failed to win in their previous four.
Sean Dyche has masterminded some promising results since taking over to steady the ship, but consecutive defeats against Manchester United and Fulham has largely undone all their hard work. This has resulted in the biggest shift of the week according to Opta’s relegation chances, with their percentage going from 41.4 to 57.5 – a 16.4% jump.
𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐞𝐫 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐠𝐮𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐁𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐥𝐞 🥊
There were some big results at the bottom of the Premier League across the last matchday, but how have they changed the % chance of relegation to the Championship?
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) April 18, 2023
Although this is still less than 67% chance they were handed following the lacklustre 2-2 draw with Nottingham Forest at the beginning of March, the Toffees face the prospect of an in-form Palace team next, before facing the likes of Newcastle, Manchester City and Brighton before the end of the season.
Elsewhere, Southampton, as mentioned, are handed the biggest percentage chance of facing the drop with 93.6. Manager Ruben Selles has struggled to build on any of the positives from his first game in charge, and the Saints were condemned to another week at the foot of the table in the 2-0 home defeat against Crystal Palace – their fourth defeat in six games.
Nottingham Forest follow closely in second on Opta’s charts with a 74.4% chance. Not only have Steve Cooper’s side not tasted victory in 10 successive games, they also have an unsettling fixture list for the remainder, which includes top-half sides such as Liverpool, Brighton, Arsenal and Brentford.
Interestingly, Leicester were given a four percentage upgrade on their chances despite falling to defeat in Manchester this week. New manager Dean Smith looks to have sparked a lease of life into the squad, even if they were comfortably beaten.
The Foxes arguably hold the most favourable run-in among the current Premier League bottom-three, with winnable games on the horizon such as Wolves, Leeds and a crucial tie with fellow strugglers Everton on May 1st.
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