See below our Doncaster racing trends and tips ahead of the LIVE ITV racing action from Town Moor on Thursday (14th Sept), with the Group Two Park Hill and May Hill Stakes two of the features today.
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ITV Racing Tips and Trends For Doncaster (Thurs 14th Sept 2023)
The four-day Doncaster St Leger Festival gets going this Thursday and will run through till Sunday – with four LIVE ITV races to get stuck into on the opening day.
We’ve a Fillies’ Nursery Handicap (1:50pm) to start today, followed by the lucrative Weatherbys Scientific 2yo Stakes (2:25), but it’s the May Hill (3:00) and Park Hill Stakes (3:35) that are likely to be grabbing the headlines.
The Karl Burke-trained Darnation will be a popular pick in the May Hill as his improving filly, who has won her last two, continues her rise up the ranks.
While in the Park Hill Stakes, it’s a race the winner of the Lillie Langtry Stakes has had a good record in over the years, so Sumo Sam, who won the Goodwood Group Two last month from the front, is interesting.
RELATED: 2023 St Leger Trends: Key Stats To Find Saturday’s Doncaster Classic Winner
Doncaster Horse Racing Tips and Trends
1:50 – British Stallion Studs “Carrie Red” EBF Fillies´ Stakes (Nursery Handicap) Cl2 6f110y ITV4
With a massive 18 of the last 20 winners carrying 9-3 or less in weight, this helps rule out some – Cry Fiction, Chinese Knot and Granny Budgie.
6 of the last 7 winners also came from stalls 7 or lower, so this is a plus for Yeah Nah, Chinese Knot, Bellarchi, Cry Fiction, Chic Colombine, Granny Bridge, Summit.
Finally, 80% of the last 20 winners were also placed last time out – so of those that tick the draw and weight stats, Bellarchi and Chic Colombine, who both won last time out, seem to have the most going for them.
- 20/20 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
- 18/20 – Carried 9-3 or less
- 17/20 – Rated 74 or higher
- 16/20 – Placed third or better last time out
- 16/20 – Had won at least one race before
- 14/20 – Won by a Feb or Mar-born foal
- 14/20 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
- 13/20 – Placed favourites
- 10/20 – Came from a double-figure stall
- 9/20 – Won last time out
- 6/20 – Winning favourites
- 5/20 – Had run at Doncaster before
- 2/20– Won by the Hannon team
- 6 of the last 7 winners came from stalls 7 or lower
2.25 – Weatherbys Scientific £200,000 2-Y-O Stakes (GBB Race) Cl2 6f110y ITV4
A big pot up for grabs here for these 2 year-olds – it’s a race the Richard Fahey, Kevin Ryan and Andrew Balding yards have all done well in recently and they are represented again.
Ryan has We Never Stop, Room Service and Vantheman, Fahey runs Flaccianello, while Balding has Imperial Express.
With 4 runners, the Hugo Palmer yard seem to mean business too.
However, this year’s race it set to be dominated by the Aidan O’Brien-trained Johannes Brahms. This 106-rated juvenile is well clear on the ratings and will be hard to beat if running to the form that saw him finish second in the Windsor Castle Stakes and Gimcrack Stakes last time out.
The Clive Cox runner Dragon Leader, who is 3-from-3, looks the one the O’Brien horse has to fear most – getting 10lbs too.
- 18/19 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
- 15/19 – Finished 5th or better last time out
- 14/19 – Yet to win over 6 ½ or 7f
- 14/19 – Won between 1-2 times
- 13/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
- 11/19 – Won from a double-figure stall
- 10/19 – Foaled in Jan or Feb
- 10/19 – Raced at York last time out
- 10/19 – Placed favourites
- 6/19 – Won last time out
- 4/19 – Winning favourites
- 3/19 – Trained by Richard Fahey (including 2 or the last 9 runnings)
- 3/19 – Placed horses from stall 1
- 2/19 – Had raced at Doncaster before
- 2/19 – Won by a filly
- 2/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 4)
- 2/19– Trained by Kevin Ryan (2 of last 10)
- 1/19 – Irish-trained winners
- 12 of the last 16 winners carried 8-12 or less in weight
RELATED: 2023 St Leger Betting: Arrest and Frankie Dettori Well-Fancied For Doncaster Classic
3.00 – Betfred May Hill Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m ITV4
This has been a good race for the favourites in recent years – with 43% of the last 21 winning – while horses from stalls 1 and 2 have also fared well. Good news for Romanova and Hard To Resist.
Having a run at Newmarket last time out is another Doncaster trend to look for, with the only two fitting the bill here being Meribella and See The Fire.
But it’s also hard to get away from the Karl Burke runner Darnation. This 2 year-old will come into the race as the top-rated and was super-impressive when winning the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood last time out by 2 lengths. She won’t mind any rain either, should the track get more of the wet stuff, and the Burke camp also won this prize in 207 with the classy Laurens.
- 19/21 – Had 1 or 2 previous career wins
- 19/21 – Had won over 7f+ before
- 19/21 – Won by a Feb, Mar or April foal
- 17/21 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
- 14/21 – Won last time out
- 10/21 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
- 9/21 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 2
- 7/21 – Winning favourites
- 12 of the last 17 winners returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
3.35 – Betfred Park Hill Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m6f132y ITV4
17 of the last 20 winners of the Park Hill Stakes came from stalls 8 or lower, meaning these horses are ones to note – One Evening, Sumo Sam, Golden Lyra, Divine Jewel, Ching Shih, Crack Of Light, Shamwari and Boogie Woogie.
It’s also interesting that trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race – he tries again to break his duck with Boogie Woogie.
Sumo Sam was an easy 8 1/2 length winner of the Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood last time on heavy ground, so any rain would be a plus. That contest has also been a good guide for this – with 5 of the last 20 winners following up here at Donny. He’s respected but might not get an easy a lead this time.
So, a chance is taken on the John Gosden runner One Evening. This 4 year-old stayed on well last time at York over 1m4f – therfore, the step up in trip here will suit, plus it’s been a top race for the yard – winning the prize for the last 2 years and also 4 times since 2015.
Gosden also has Lmay, who could be worth a small saver at a price based on the top record in the race they have.
- 18/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
- 17/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
- 17/20 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
- 16/20 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
- 15/20 – Won no more than 4 times before
- 14/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
- 13/20 – Placed favourites
- 11/20 – Previous Group winners
- 10/20 – Had run at Doncaster before
- 9/20 – Had won over at least 1m6f before
- 8/20 – Irish bred
- 8/20 – Won last time out
- 6/20 – Winning favourites
- 5/20 – Won the Lillie Langtry (Goodwood) that season
- 5/19 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
- 4/20 – Trained by John Gosden
- 2/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
- Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race
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