Does Auguste Rodin Fit The Vertem Futurity Trophy Trends?

rodin auguste
rodin auguste
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The Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes sees the Aidan O’Brien-trained Auguste Rodin as one of the leading fancy for Saturday’s Group One 2 year-old contest, as the Ballydoyle trainer looks for his eleventh win in the Doncaster race. But let’s take a look to see if him improving colt fits the Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes trends.

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RELATED: Doncaster Races 2022 – Cards, Tips & Results for Racing at Doncaster


What Date/Time Is The Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes 2022?

📅Date: 3:35pm – Saturday 24th October 2022
🏇Racecourse: Doncaster
💰 Purse/Winner: £118,400
📺 TV: ITV4 / Racing TV


DID YOU KNOW? 16 of the last 20 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes winners ran in the last 4 weeks and finished in the top 2 last time out. So, why not snap-up a FREE £30 bet with BetUK to use on Saturday’s Doncaster big Group One race?

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2022 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes Trends

Plenty of key Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes trends to apply to Saturday’s Doncaster race – use these horse racing statsto find the best profiles of past winners.

Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes Betting Trends Summary

  • 18/20 – Had won either 1 or 2 races before
  • 17/20 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
  • 17/20 – Placed favourites
  • 17/20 – Foaled in February or later
  • 16/20 – Finished in the top two last time out
  • 16/20 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
  • 15/20 – Had raced at least twice previously
  • 13/20 – Winning favourites
  • 13/20 – Foaled in either Feb or March
  • 13/20 – Ran at either the Curragh or Newmarket last time out
  • 12/20 – Won their last race
  • 11/20 – Had won over a mile in the past
  • 9/20 – Won by an Irish-based yard
  • 7/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
  • 4/20 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (won 4 of the last 9)
  • 4/20 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas (inc 3 of the last 5 winners)
  • 3/20 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
  • 1/20 – Went onto win the St Leger
  • Five winners have gone onto win the following season’s Epsom Derby
  • Aidan O’Brien has won the race 10 times – 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2017, 2018 & 2021
  • The average SP in the last 20 runnings is 13/2

RELATED: Doncaster Saturday Tips | Newbury Saturday Tips | Cheltenham Saturday Tips


The St Leger day at Doncaster Racecourse is put back 24 hours after the death of The Queen

90% Of The Last 20 Winners Had Won 1 or 2 Times Before

Most of the 2022 runners for the Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes will fit this trend, including the likely favourite – AUGUSTE RODIN @ 5/6 with BetUK – who has won two of his three races and is also the 10/1 favourite with BetUK for the 2023 Epsom Derby next season.

Having run second on debut at the Curragh back in June, he’s improved to win his last two races at Naas and last time in the Group 2 Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown (watch below).

If running, Victoria Road, who has won his last three, would be one of the horses that falls down on this stat with a trio of wins to his name already.

16 Of The Last 20 Winners Raced In The Last 4 Weeks

Again, a trend that will apply to most, including the John Gosden runners Arrest and Epictetus, who were both in action 26 days or less ago.

However, this is one of the main stats that Auguste Rodin will need to overcome – having last raced 42 days ago.

Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes Favourites Have A Good Record

Despite falling down on the last trend, Auguste Rodin gets a big thumbs-up here as, if running, he’s the likely favourite and the market leaders have a fine recent record in this race.

The jollies have won 13 of the last 20 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes and been placed 85% of those renewals.

13 Of The Last 20 Winners Foaled In February or March

Being a 2 year-old contest, then these young horses can improve a vast amount between their early races. Therefore, looking at the month they were born can be a plus, as despite all being 2 year-olds some they will still be separated by up to 2 or 3 months in birth.

This can be an advantage and with 13 of the last 20 winners foaled in Feb or March, these two months seem to be the ones to focus on.

Auguste Rodin was born in January 2020, so actually falls down there too. However, because this is the earliest month a 2 year-old can be born, many will look to him being one of the oldest in the field and therefore a bit more mature than some of the others.

In contrast, the Gosden runner Arrest, who will be popular if running, was born in April – so, you can see a full 3 months younger than Auguste Rodin. While the other Gosden possible entry Epictetus was a May foal, so even younger.

60% Of The Last 20 Winners Won Last Time Out

Winning last time out is another trend to look for. Yes, many will tick his trend with 8 of the 17 entries at the earlier stage won their most recent race.

But it will still put a line through some, with Epictetus and the Donnacha O’Brien runner – Proud And Glory – two potential runners that DIDN’T win their last outing.

WATCH: Auguste Rodin Winning The Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown (10th Sept 22)

Trainer Aidan O’Brien Has Won The Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes 10 Times

Anything trainer Aidan O’Brien runs in the Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes has to be respected – he’s won the Doncaster race 10 times, including again 12 months ago.

The first success for O’Brien came back in 1997 when jockey Michael Kinane guided home his Saratoga Springs and he didn’t have to wait long before making a name for himself in the race – winning the 1999 running with Aristotle, the 2001 with High Chaparral and 2022 renewal with Brian Boro.

St Nicholas Abbey was O’Brien’s next Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes winner in 2009 and then added Camelot (2011), who also went onto win the 2012 Epsom Derby. Kingsbarn took the race the following year in 2012 and then his more recent winners in the Doncaster race were Saxon Warrior (2017), Magna Grecia (2018) and, the already mentioned, Luxembourg 12 months ago (watch below)

O’Brien Has 8 Runners Entered At This Stage
  • Adelaide River
  • Auguste Rodin
  • Covent Garden
  • Espionage
  • Greenland
  • Hiawatha
  • Salt Lake City
  • Victoria Road

Trainer John Gosden Is Yet To Win The Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes

Aside from Aidan O’Brien, it’s the John Gosden team that has the next best two in the betting for the 2022 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes, but surprisingly he’s yet to win this Group One prize!

Gosden will be hoping to put that right this year with two possible runners in Arrest and Epictetus, who are prominent in the betting too. Note, Epictetus is also entrered in Saturday’s Horris Hill Stakes at Newbury.

Arrest has won his last two and was very impressive at Ffos Las last time out, albeit at odd of 1/6, while Epictetus was a close second in the G3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket earlier this month (watch below) and on that form would certainly have a chance.

https://youtu.be/5-wPiHKOm2Q

 

2022 Vertem Futurity Stakes Betting & Key Runners

See below the latest betting ahead of the Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes on Saturday 22nd October.

Vertem Futurity Stakes Horse Latest Odds Bookmaker
AUGUSTE RODIN 5/6 betuk
EPICTETUS 7/2 betuk
STORMBUSTER 7/1 betuk
HOLLOWAY BOY 8/1 betuk
KING OF STEEL 12/1 betuk
SALT LAKE CITY 14/1 betuk
DANCING MAGIC 33/1 betuk
CAPTAIN WIERZBA 40/1 betuk

All odds correct as of 08:53 BST on Fri 21 and subject to change

Recent Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes Winners

  • 2021 – Luxembourg (4/6 fav)
  • 2020 – Mac Swiney (12/1)
  • 2019 – Kameko (11/2)
  • 2018 – Magna Grecia (2/1 fav)
  • 2017 – Saxon Warrior (13/8 fav)

WATCH: Luxembourg Winning 2021 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes

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