Andy Newton’s Classic Chase trends 2024 can help you find the best profile of past winners ahead of this Saturday’s big Warwick horse race. It’s also a contest that is often a good early guide for the Grand National with One For Arthur winning both races in 2017.
Plus, we’ve a stack of horse racing free bets you can claim to use on the race, while the latest Classic Chase betting odds are showcased below too, including a £40 betting offer from BetMGM.
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Classic Chase Trends & Warwick Betting Stats
The Classic Chase, which is staged a Warwick racecourse, is one of the featured horse races in the UK this Saturday. The 3m5f handicap chase was won by the Emma Lavelle-trained Eclair Surf
See our key 2024 Classic Chase trends to apply to the final runners ahead of the big Warwick race on Saturday 13th January (3:00pm).
Classic Chase Trends and Stats
- 16/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
- 16/18 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
- 14/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
- 13/18 – Officially rated between 129-140
- 13/18 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
- 13/18 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
- 12/18 – Won between 2-5 times over fences
- 12/18 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
- 12/18 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting
- 11/18 – Won by an Irish bred horse
- 11/18 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
- 10/18 – Placed favourites
- 9/18 – Returned a double-figure price
- 8/18 – Ran at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
- 6/18 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
- 5/18 – Won last time out
- 3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
- 3/18 – Trained by Alan King
- 2/18 – Trained by Emma Lavelle (2 of the last 10)
- 10 of the last 13 Classic Chase winners aged 9 or younger
- Only two winning favourites in the last 18 runnings
- The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 10/1
What Date & Time Is The 2024 Classic Chase
📅Time/Date: 3:00pm (Sat 13th January)
🏇Racecourse: Warwick Races
💰 Purse/Winner: £56,950
📺 TV: ITV4 / Racing TV
2024 Classic Chase Trends for Big Saturday Warwick Race
Use Andy Newton’s Classic Chase Trends to find the best winning profile of past winners. Apply these stats to the final Warwick runners to see which horses have the best chance of winning based on history.
89% Of the Last 17 Classic Chase Winners Ran in The Last 6 Weeks
A good place to start is to hunt out horses that raced in the last six week. Yes, several might for the bill here and it’s always wise to give these kinds of stats a few days grace.
So, we are really looking for horses that last raced 45 days or more ago.
Of the Classic Chase runners entered in 2024 Guetapan Collonges falls down having run 55 days ago.
13 Of the Last 18 Classic Chase Winners Carried 11st 3lbs or Less in Weight
Being a handicap, then weight carried is another trend to look for with 73% of the last 18 Classic Chase winners carrying 11st 3lbs or less.
The 2022 winner Eclair Surf won with 11st 3lbs, but the 2021 winner Notachance only had 10st 5lbs. At the higher end of the weight spectrum, we’ve only had one winner go in carrying more than 11st 7lbs since the race was first run in 1973 (Hey Big Spender, 11st 12lbs 2012).
These horses fall down here with 11st 4lbs or more to carry – City Chief, Galia Des Liteaux, Fontaine Collonges, Beauport, Guetapan Collonges (4th last year), Malina Girl.
Look For Horses Aged Between 7-9 Years-Old
Next up is the age. Back between 1986 and 2002, the Classic Chase tended to go to a horse aged 10 or older. During that period there were 13 winners aged in double-figures.
However, in more recent years this age trend has flipped, with horse aged between 7-9 have dominated the race – winning 10 of the last 13 runnings – despite last year’s winner Iwilldoit aged 10. Three of the last four winners were also aged 7 or 8.
Looking at the entries, the horses aged 10+ in the race are Rapper, Volcano & Duc De Beauchene,
67% Of Recent Winners (last 18) Had Won Between 2-5 Times Over Fences
It could also pay to look for horses that have won between 2-5 times over fences. This trend has been responsible for 12 of the last 18 winners.
Horses From Outside The Top Three In The Betting Have Done Well
In 2022 we saw an 11/1 winner of the Classic Chase, with Eclair Surf which was another plus for the positive trend that’s seen 12 of the last 18 winners come from outside the first three in the betting.
Since 2016, we’ve also had 20/1, 14/1 and 12/1 (twice) winners so certainly don’t be put off if your Classic Chase fancy is a bit further down the betting.
Last year’s winner Iwilldoit returned 12/1 too.
Just Two Winning Favourites In The Last 18 Renewals
Following on from the last trend, we’ve also only seen two Classic Chase winning favourites in the last 18 renewals, so this hasn’t been a great race for punters. Last year’s market leader Guetapan Collonges, who is entered again, was only fourth.
At this stage, Malina Girl, Guetapan Collonges and Beauport are disputing the favourites berth for the 2024 Classic Chase.
Only 4 Of The Last 17 Classic Chase Winners Won Their Last Race
Most of the time, looking for horses that won last time out is a big plus. After all, this tells punters a horse is in good order and if bringing that winning form to the table again can be expected to go well.
However, this theory doesn’t seem to apply to the Classic Chase in recent years as only five of the last 18 winners took this 3m5f Warwick Chase off the back of a win.
Only Fontaine Collonges won last time out.
65% Of The Last 17 Winners Placed In The Top Three Last Time Out
Following on from the last trend – we might want to rule out recent winners, but horse that were placed in the top three last time have a better record.
Therefore, these two trends combined suggest looking for horses that finished either second or third in their most recent race. Of the potential 2024 Classic Chase runners, these fit the bill – Credo, My Silver Lining, Percussion, Guetapan Collonge, Beauport and Galia Des Liteaux.
Some Early Grand National Clues?
Being a handicap and being run over one of the longer trips (3m 5f), then the Classic Chase is often used by trainers readying one for the Aintree Grand National, which will be run in 2024 on Saturday 13th April.
In 2017 we actually saw the Classic Chase winner – One For Arthur – go onto win the world’s greatest steeplechase at Aintree, so whichever horse wins this Saturday’s Warwick race should certainly be on your radar for Aintree.
Sadly, however, the 2022 Classic Chase winner Eclair Surf did run in the Grand National but was fatally injured after falling at the third fence. Iwilldoit, who won last year, didn’t run in the 2023 National.
Trainers Emma Lavelle, Alan King and Paul Nicholls Should Be Respected
Trainer Emma Lavelle won the 2022 Classic Chase with Eclair Surf, which added to her success in 2014 with Shotgun Paddy. She’s a handler that clearly likes to have this race in mind for her horses and this year has My Silver Lining.
Other yards to note are Paul Nicholls as the Ditcheat team have won the Classic Chase three times since 2006 – he’s got Broken Halo entered in 2024. While Alan King is also respected with wins in 2011 and 2021 – he runs Major Dundee.
Classic Chase 2024 Betting & Key Runners
See below the latest betting odds from BetMGM ahead of the Classic Chase at Warwick on Saturday 13th January 2024.
- Malina Girl 9/2
- Guetapan Gollonges 11/2
- Beauport 15/2
- Galia Des Liteaux 8/1
- Fontaine Collonges 8/1
- Major Dundee 9/1
- City Chief 10/1
- Broken Halo 12/1
- Percussion 12/1
- My Silver Lining 14/1
- Credo 16/1
- Volcano 16/1
- Rapper 18/1
- Duc De Beauchene
Note: Odds are subject to change
Recent Classic Chase Winners
- 2023 – IWILLDOIT (12/1)
- 2022 – ÉCLAIR SURF (11/1)
- 2021 – NOTACHANCE (7/2 jfav)
- 2020 – KIMBERLITE CANDY (9/2)
- 2019 – IMPULSIVE STAR (8/1)
- 2018 – MILANSBAR (12/1)
- 2017 – ONE FOR ARTHUR (14/1)
- 2016 – RUSSE BLANC (20/1)
- 2015 – HAWKES POINT (15/2)
- 2014 – SHOTGUN PADDY (9/1)
- 2013 – RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE (5/1)
WATCH: Iwilldoit Winning The 2023 Classic Chase at Warwick
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