Use Andy Newton’s Chester Cup trends to find the best profiles based on past winners of the race. For example – 95% of the last 21 winners were aged 7 or younger. Friday’s big staying handicap is due off today at 3:40pm and despite there being 17 runners you can narrow your search down using the key Chester stats.
Chester Cup Trends to Help You Find The 2024 Winner
The Chester Cup is the highlight race of the three-day Chester May Meeting this week and having previously been run on the opening day in the past, is now staged on the Friday – the last day.
Run over one of the longer trips on the flat (2m 2 1/2f), the handicap often attracts jumping trainers too, with Nicky Henderson winning the prize in 2016 and NH yard Harry Fry joining the Roodee party in 2023 with Metier.
Top Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien broke his Chester Cup duck in 2022, when Ryan Moore steered home his Cleveland – that was the second Irish winner since 2021 after the Dermot Weld-trained Falcon Eight, who is back for more this Friday, won in 2021.
What Date & Time Is The 2024 Chester Cup?
📅Time/Date: 3:40pm (Friday 10th May 2024)
🏇Racecourse: Chester
💰 Purse/Winner: £86,632
📺 TV: ITV4 / Racing TV
20 Of the Last 21 Chester Cup Winners Aged 7 Or Younger
When looking at the key Chester Cup trends the best place to start is the age.
A massive 95% of the last 21 winners were aged 7 or younger and even though most will fit the bill here it actually knocks out the 2021 winner Falcon Eight, who is now aged 9.
Since 1975, there have only been three winners aged 8 or older.
The Grand Visir (10), who was 2nd in 2021, Zoffee (8) and former Cheltenham Festival winner The Shunter (11) are other old-timers in the race.
71% Of Recent Winners Aged 5, 6 or 7
Sticking with the age, the best age group to have onside is the 5, 6 and 7 year-olds. These three ages have been responsible for 71% of the last 21 winner – including last year’s winner Metier, who was aged 7.
So, we already know the older horses (8+) have a bad record, but it seems the 4 year-old stat is turning slightly with three winners of this age since 2015.
This year’s 4 year-olds in the race are the well-fancied pair of Grand Providence and Duke Of Oxford.
RELATED: See Andy Newton’s Daily ‘LAY OF THE DAY’ Pick
Don’t Worry If Your Fancy Was Unplaced Last Time Out
Next up is to look at recent form and don’t worry if your fancy heads here having not run too well last time.
This is because 14 of the last 21 winners came here having been unplaced last time out. Meaning these runners, that finished 4th or better last time, have this stat to overcome – Too Friendly, Magellan Strait, The Shunter, Duke Of Oxford and Grand Providence.
Make 9st 2lbs Your Weight Cut-Off Point
Being a handicap, then the weight carried has to be looked at too. Since 1981 only 8 horses have won with more than 9-2 on their backs, while in the last 21 runnings, 14 winners won with 9st 2lbs or less (67%).
This was backed up again last year with Cleveland winning with 9st, but a small word of caution here as 7 of the last 10 winners did carry 9st or over, including 2023 winner Metier with 9st 1lb.
The Shunter, Magellan Strait and Falcon Eight are the three horses with 9st 3lbs or more to carry.
57% Of The Last 21 Winners Came From Stalls 7 or Lower
Being run over 2m 2 1/2f, then many feel the draw isn’t that important, but Chester is a tight turning track so even over the longer trips the starting stalls can play a big part.
This is supported with 57% of the last 21 winners coming from stalls 7 or lower. But, again, a small word of caution here as the last four winners all came from berths 10+.
The 2024 Chester Cup runners from stalls 7 or lower are – Zoffee (1), Magellan Strait (2), Forza Orta (3), Aztec Empire (4), Solent Gateway (5), Aqwaam (6) and Emiyn (7).
What Is The Chester Cup Favourites Record Like?
Since 1975, there have only been four winning Chester Cup favourites and only two winning market leaders in the last 21 runnings.
At this stage the Andrew Balding-trained Grand Providence is topping the betting, with Aztec Empire and Duke Of Oxford just behind him in the betting.
52% Of Market Leaders Unplaced Since 2002
Following on from this favourites trend, the market leader has also been unplaced in 52% of the races since 2002.
Ryan Moore Has Ridden Two Of The Last 9 Chester Cup Winners
Top jockey Ryan Moore has already fired in several winners this week at Chester and he’s building up a fair record in this race – winning the prize twice in the last 9 runnings.
However, the good news for the other riders this year is that Moore doesn’t have a booked ride at this stage.
Last year’s winning rider – Saffie Osborne – is back for more though and will ride Solent Gateway this time. While 2019 winner Franny Norton is on Aqwaam and 2017 hero Oisin Murphy will get the leg-up on Aztec Empire.
Chester Cup Trends: The Last 21 Runnings
See below our in-depth Chester Cup trends to help you find the best profile based on past winners of the race. Apply these 2024 Chester stats to the final runners to see which horses have the most going for them.
- 20/21 – Aged 7 years-old or younger
- 18/21 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
- 15/21 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-olds
- 15/21 – Officially rated between 93-99
- 14/21 – Unplaced last time out
- 14/21 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
- 14/21 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
- 14/21 – Raced within the last 2 months
- 12/21 – Won previously over at least 2m on the flat
- 12/21 – Won from stall 7 or lower
- 11/21 – Favourites unplaced
- 11/21 – Irish bred
- 4/21 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
- 3/21 – Won at the track before
- 3/21 – Raced at Aintree over hurdles last time out
- 3/21 – Won their previous race
- 2/21 – Trained by Donald McCain
- 2/21– Trained by Richard Fahey
- 2/21 – Trained by Ian Williams
- 2/21 – Favourite
- 2/21 – Irish-trained winners
- The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 12/1
Key Chester Cup Stats
- The race has seen repeat winners three times since 1997
- Since 1975 we’ve only seen 4 winning favourites
- The Hills yard took the race in 1980, 1999, 2001 and 2009
- Since 1975 all winners have been aged 8 or younger
- Since 1975 there have only been three winners aged 8 years-old
- Since 1981 only 8 winners have carried more than 9-2 to victory (but last 6 carried 9st+)
- 4 of the last 13 winners came from NH yards
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried 9st or more
- 3 of the last 11 winners returned 10/1
- Ryan Moore, Jim Crowley and Jamie Spencer have won the race twice each since 2008
Chester Cup Recent Winners
- 2023 – Metier (5/1)
- 2022 – Cleveland (6/1)
- 2021 – Falcon Eight (15/2)
- 2020 – No Race
- 2019 – Making Miracles (16/1)
- 2018 – Magic Circle (8/1)
- 2017 – Montaly (16/1)
- 2016 – No Heretic (11/1)
- 2015 – Trip To Paris (10/1)
- 2014 – Suegioo (10/1)
- 2013 – Address Unknown (12/1)
Chester Cup Betting Odds
See below the latest 2024 Chester Cup odds that you can get find at the best horse racing betting sites.
- Grand Providence 5/1
- Aztec Empire 7/1
- Duke Of Oxford 7/1
- The Shunter 8/1
- Emiyn 10/1
- Falcon Eight 12/1
- Magellan Strait 12/1
- Zanndabad 12/1
- Zoffee 14/1
- Aqwaam 16/1
- Forza Orta 16/1
- Solent Gateway 16/1
- Zealandia 16/1
Note: Others on request and odds are subject to change.
WATCH: Metier Winning The 2023 Chester Cup
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