Cheltenham November Meeting Trends 2023: Day Two Saturday Stats To Find The Winners

The top Prestbury Park horse racing action resumes on Saturday with the Paddy Power Gold Cup the big highlight and to help find the winners you can use our key Cheltenham November Meeting trends 2023 to showcase the best profiles in each of Saturday’s four LIVE ITV Racing contests.

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Cheltenham November Meeting Trends: Day Two Stats To Find The Saturday ITV Racing Winners

The 2023 Cheltenham November Meeting continues on Saturday (18th Nov) with another top afternoon of National Hunt action at the home of jumps racing. And to help narrow down your search for the winners, here at SportsLens we’ve got the key big race trends and stats for each of the LIVE ITV races.

One of those races is the ultra-competitive Paddy Power Gold Cup (2:20pm) – a contest that trainer Paul Nicholls will be hoping to win for a third time and he’s got a strong hand with Stage Star and Il Ridoto.

The contest also sees a strong Irish presence as they look for their first Paddy Power Gold Cup winner since 2009. They send over Authorzied Art and Final Orders to try and end the 14-year run without success.

See below the key Cheltenham trends and stats for all of the Saturday four LIVE ITV races – use these to narrow down your search and find the best horse profiles based on previous winners.

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends: Saturday 18th November 2023

1.45 – From The Horse’s Mouth Podcast Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) (Registered As The November) (GBB Race) Cl2 2m ITV

The Henderson-trained Mister Coffey will be popular here as the top-rated in the field and with Nico de Boinville riding but the worry would be he’s yet to win over fences from nine starts (5 seconds).

Good Risk At All is a course winner and last time slammed another runner here Alaphilippe by 16 lengths that day, but the step up to 3m (from 2m4f) is the negative.

So, the call is side with the Nigel Twiston-Davies pair in Broadway Boy and WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT @ 11/4 with BetMGM, who were 2nd and 3rd last time out behind the classy Flooring Porter.

That’s solid form and despite coming third that day, the 6 year-old Weveallbeencaught gets the nod, with 70% of the last 10 winners aged 5 or 6, plus the last two aged 6. The same age as this NTD runner.

That last run was also his first for 197-days so should have come on for it, while the softer ground will help having looked a tad one-paced the last day.

• 11/12 – Favourites top three finish
• 11/12 – Won between 0-1 times over fences
• 11/12 – Priced 13/2 or shorter in the betting
• 11/12 – Placed first or second last time out9/12 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
• 9/12 – Ran at Cheltenham before (hurdles/chase)
• 8/12 – Won their last race
• 8/12 – Raced at Cheltenham (4), Aintree (2) or Uttoxeter (2) last time out
• 5/12 – French bred winners
• 5/12 – Favourites
• The last 10 winners aged 8 or younger
• 7 of the last 10 winners aged 5 or 6 years-old
   

2.20 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

A strong hand for trainer Paul Nicholls with Stage Star, his Turners Novices’ Chase winner at the Festival last season, and Il Ridoto. Both will have many supporters and it’s easy to see why.

The Irish will also be looking to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup for the first time since 2009 and they pin their hopes on two – Autorized Art for Willie Mullins and Final Orders for Gavin Cromwell.

Notlongtillmay and course silver medal specialist Fugitif are others with big says. However, the two that stand out are UNEXPECTED PARTY @ 6/1 with BetMGM and TORN AND FRAYED (e/w) at 14/1 with BetMGM.

The former is from the Dan Skelton yard that are yet to win this race but have gone close over the years with several thirds in the last three runnings. This 8 year-old was a good winner at Chepstow last time out when beating Knappers Hill and with that horse franking the form by winning at Wincanton last weekend this is a further plus.

Unexpected Party up just 4lbs for that win and gets in here still with a nice racing weight of 10-12 – 15 of the last 21 winners carried 11st or less.

The other that is worth chancing is Torn and Frayed, despite coming here off a 658-day layoff. This Nigel Twiston-Davies runner has had his issues but was last seen winning at Cheltenham at their 2022 Trials Day in great fashion and is back only 4lbs higher.

Of course, fitness has to be taken on trust, but the NTD yard have a good record in this race (4 wins) and love this November Meeting so the fact they are pitching him back here first time suggests he’s in good order. Just 10st 1lb on his back is the added bonus.

• 20/21 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
• 20/21 – Won over at least 2m4f over fences
• 20/21 – Won by a UK-based trainer
• 17/21 – Priced 14/1 or shorter in the betting
• 15/21 – Carried 11st or less in weight
• 15/21 – Top 4 finish last time out
• 14/21 – Won at Cheltenham before
• 13/21 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 13/21 – Won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
• 11/21 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or Twiston-Davies (3)
• 10/21 – Favourites placed
• 10/21 – Came from top 3 in the betting
• 9/21 – Aged 7 years-old
• 8/21 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
• 5/21 – Won last time out
• 5/21 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
• 4/21 – Trained by the Pipe stable
• 3/21 – Favourites
• 3/21 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies yard (4 wins in total)
• 3/21 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill yard
• 3/21 – Raced at Carlisle last time out
• 2/21 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
• 1/21 – Irish-trained winners
• The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
• Paul Nicholls has saddled 11 placed horses (two winners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 45 runners
• The average winning SP in the last 21 renewals is 10/1

2.55 – Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f67y ITV

Many chances here, but with a massive 90% of the last 21 winners aged 7 or younger this helps whittle some out – notably the formerly useful pair or Chantry House and Shan Blue, who are both now 9.

Having 10st 11lbs or less is another plus, as is previous course form. It’s also been a good race for the Pipe yard over the years and so it’s interesting they run PLACENET at 13/2 with BetMGM, who is a French recruit having his first outing in the UK.

He’s only 6 years-old, but has run 18 times, winning 8 of those and in France has a lot of form on very soft ground. With just 10st 5lbs to carry, the horse gets in with a featherweight and the useful Jack Tudor has been booked to ride.

Of the rest, Moka De Vassy and Noble Birth are others that tick both the key age and weight stats.

• 19/21 – Aged 7 or younger
• 18/21 – Had between 2 and 5 previous hurdles wins
• 17/21 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
• 16/21 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
• 15/21 – Carried 10-11 or less
• 15/21 – Irish bred winners
• 14/21 – Raced at either Cheltenham (7), Aintree (4) or Chepstow (3) last time out
• 14/21 – Officially rated 126 to 137
• 13/21 – Favourites placed
• 13/21 – From the top 3 in the betting
• 13/21 – Raced at Cheltenham before
• 12/21 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
• 9/21 – Won last time out
• 7/21 – Favourites (1 joint)
• 7/21 – Priced 11/4 or shorter in the betting
• 4/21 – Won by the Pipe stable
• 1/21 – Won by an Irish-trained stable
• 5 of the last 15 winners have had a claiming jockey

3.30 – Paddy Power Feel Like A Favourite Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f26y ITV

The last of the Saturday Cheltenham ITV LIVE races is an event that is often a good pointer to the Cheltenham Festival in March with 33% of the last 18 winners going onto finish ‘top 4’ in a race there that season.

5 and 6 year-olds have dominated too – winning 89% of the last 18 – and winning between 1-2 times over hurdles is another plus. With all that in mind, Springwell Bay, Londonofficecallin and Gyenyame are big players, but RESPLENDENT GREY at 5/2 with BetMGM is the pick.

This Olly Murphy runner was second, albeit 9 1/2 lengths, to Captain Teague at Chepstow last time out and that looks fair form. We can expect him to have improved for that too as it came off a 168-day break and he’s only had three runs over hurdles too (2 wins). Harry Skelton rides.

• 16/18 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
• 16/18 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 13/18 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
• 13/18 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
• 9/18 – Raced at Cheltenham before
• 8/18 – Irish-bred winners
• 8/18 – Returned a double-figure price
• 8/18 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
• 7/18 – Unplaced favourites
• 6/18 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a race at the Cheltenham Festival
• 6/18 – Won last race
• 5/18 – French bred winners
• 4/18 – Favourites
• 2 of the last 10 winners went onto be placed in the Martin Pipe Conditionals race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
• 2 of the last 14 winners went onto be placed in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season

Note: Odds are subject to change

Cheltenham November Meeting Running Order: Saturday 18th, Nov 2023

See below the full Saturday Cheltenham November Meeting times and running order – plus you can see all this week’s races and schedule for the whole three-day fixture here.

• 12:35 – Jcb Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Registered As The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (3yo) 2m½f RTV
• 1:10 – Wienerberger Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase Cl3 (4yo+ 0-140) 3m1f RTV
• 1:45 – From The Horse’s Mouth Podcast Novices’ Chase (Listed Race) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m½f ITV
• 2:20 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV
• 2:55 – Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m ITV
• 3:30 – Paddy Power Feel Like A Favourite Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 (3yo+ 0-140) 2m5f ITV
• 4:05 – Karndean Designflooring mares’ Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (4-5yo) 2m½f RTV