Cheltenham Favourite Win Percentage: Which Race Has Produced the Most Winning Favourites?

With the festival fast approaching, bettors and experts are scouring the stats to find any sort of edge ahead of next week’s first race. With that in mind, we are taking a look at back through previous editions of the meeting to determine which race typically has the highest Cheltenham favourite win percentage.

Backing the favourite for any given race is comes with its own challenges, particularly at Cheltenham. The calibre of horses is such that most of the runners lining up for all 28 races enter the week having been crowned champion elsewhere, or at the very least placed at a high-profile meeting.

The shortest price has been set for a reason, but that of course means a higher stake is needed to see a return worth bragging about. Cheltenham Festival fits within the general 30% win percentage of favourites – of course this is a massive simplification, and individual races, meetings and tracks come with their own unique set of obstacles.

However, when we dissect the percentages of winning favourites since the turn of the century for each individual race at Cheltenham, and attempt to find an average, it equates to roughly 30%, which aligns with the highly generalised rule of thumb.

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Cheltenham Favourite Win Percentage of Each Race

Several trends reveal themselves in the table below, which excludes the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase having only been added to the running order in 2021.

Future results in that race may well align with the pattern of races that feature exclusively mares. The two other mare-only races both feature in the top four for highest favourite win percentages, with the Close Brothers Hurdle moving clear with 53%.

Elsewhere, the Ryanair Novices’ Hurdle ranks fourth with 43%, but it is perhaps noteworthy to mention the average winner odds for that race stands little under 11/1, which highlights there may still be value to be had.

At the other end of the spectrum the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle, which was introduced in 2009’s festival, has seen just 7% of its winners named as pre-race favourites.

Other notable trends that arise from these stats include the lack of Grade 2 races in the top 10, with the only anomaly being the aforementioned Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, while it would appear bigger field handicaps experience a lower favourite win percentage.

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