HUGE Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Stat FACT TO FILE Needs To Overcome at Cheltenham

After a recent romp at the Dublin Racing Festival, Fact To File is being billed as one of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival bankers ahead of the four-day meeting in March.

At this stage the exciting Willie Mullins-trained 7 year-old is a big fancy for both the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase and also the Turners Novices’ Chase.

However, if the JP McManus chaser Fact To File opts for the former there is a HUGE Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase stat the horse will need to kick into touch.

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Stat: Only ONE French-Bred Has Won The Race In The Last 17 Years

Trainer Willie Mullins has a top record in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, with five wins – more than any other handler – and trends lovers might have to cling to this stat if they are backing his FACT TO FILE.

This is because the race has also only produced ONE French-bred winner in the last 17 years – and, you guessed it – Fact To File is a French-bred.

Yes, L’Homme Presse defied this breeding stat in 2022, but he was the first French-bred winner of the race since the Paul Nicholls-trained Star de Mohaison in 2006.

All this equates to a record that stands at 1-from-43 horses during this period, which doesn’t make great reading if you are thinking of wading into the Grade One Ladbrokes Novice Chase winner – Fact To File (watch below).

But – Could This French-Bred Cheltenham Stat Be Turning?

There is, however, a glimmer of hope for Fact To File fans.

In 2022, Farouk D’alene (FR) was also in the process of running a big race until falling two out – it would have probably been a French-bred 1-2 that year with L’Homme Presse.

While, 12 months ago another Frenchie – Gerri Colombe – was only just denied when losing out by just a short-head to The Real Whacker. Another stride and Elliott’s Gold Cup hope would have won.

Plus, another French-bred – I Am Maximus – was also fourth 12 months ago.

So, could this Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase stat be turning?

Regardless, if you are thinking of taking on Fact To File, this will give you a good starting point.

Fact To File is currently the favourite with the best UK horse racing betting sites for both the Brown Advisory and Turners Novices’ Chases.

When Is The Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase 2024?

The Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase is staged at the Cheltenham Festival on the second day – Wednesday

📅Time/Date: 2:10pm, Wednesday 13th March 2024
🏇Racecourse: Cheltenham
💰 Winner: £98,473.00
📺 TV: RacingTV / ITV

See the full running order and times for the 2024 Cheltenham Festival.

Fact To File Was Runner-Up In The 2023 Champion Bumper

Fact To File will also be familiar to Festival fans having run second in the Champion Bumper 12 months ago.

Connections have decided to skip a campaign over hurdles and went straight over fences with him this season, where he’s currently 2-from-3.

Fact To File Could Run In The Turners Novices’ Chase Instead

In typical Willie Mullins fashion, Fact To File also holds an entry in the Turners Novices’ Chase on day three.

This race is over a shorter trip of 2m 4f and in terms of French-bred horses is a much better race for them at this stage of their careers.

Many feel this is due to the shorter trip, with the more staying distances saved for later in their careers.

The last 12 Turners Novices’ Chase winners were either Irish (8) or French (4) bred.

Other Key Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Trends and Stats

Positives

• 26 of the last 29 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
• 7 year-olds do well – won 14 of the last 17 (19 of last 24)
• 12 of the last 18 winners won their last race
• 5 of the last 15 winners raced in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase
• ALL of the 22 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
• 16 of the last 17 winners placed 1^st or 2^nd in a G1/G2 over fences
• 7 of the last 14 winners were beaten on their first run over fences
• 8 of the last 16 winners had won a bumper
• 8 of the last 17 winning favourites
• The last 9 winners were rated 150+
• 11 of the last 12 winners returned single-figures
• 21 of the last 23 winners had raced between 3-5 times over fences
• Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
• Irish bred horses are 22 from the last 27
• 12 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
• 7 of the last 15 winners were Irish-trained
• Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race (11 of the last 20 between them)
• 26 of the last 31 were novice hurdling last season
• 6 of the last 14 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett last season
• Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (55 of the last 57 winners)
• 12 of the last 17 winners had run at the Festival last year
• 8 of the last 9 winners came from the top 3 in the betting

Negatives

• French bred horses are 1-from-43 (last 17 years, but the 2022 winner L’Homme Presse was a French-bred)
• Avoid unbeaten horses (only 3 of the last 24 winners)
• Mares are  0-from-12 in the race
• Horses in headgear have a bad record
• No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
• Only 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
• Avoid horses that had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
• Only 3 of the last 24 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
• No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26^th Dec) have won gone onto win this race