Particularly since the turn of the year, Arsenal’s renewed sense of urgency in the Premier League title race has seen them steamroll opponents. Results and performances have been impressive to say the least, but the underlying Arsenal xG numbers show just how much they have improved this season.
Which Team Has the Highest xG in the Premier League?
Before launching into some of the more complex Expected Goals (xG) comparisons, it is worth noting that Arsenal actually trail Liverpool and Manchester City when it comes to xG alone.
However, for all the angst over where their goals would come from at the start of the season, the Gunners have managed to, once again, unearth goalscorers from all over the pitch.
This is best evidenced by Gabriel’s four Premier League goals this campaign, with the Brazilian the chief beneficiary of Arsenal’s revolutionary record from set pieces. Two more goals from a dead-ball situation against Newcastle took their tally up to 18 for the season.
Of course, the xG algorithm only goes as far as telling us how often a team might have, or should have scored, but it serves as an excellent indicator as to how regularly a given side can create chances.
- Liverpool – 61.99
- Manchester City – 58
- Arsenal – 57.12
- Newcastle United – 53.67
- Aston Villa – 52.01
xG stats courtesy of Understat
Arsenal are averaging an xG supremacy of +2.80(xG) per game over their last 6 Premier League matches.
That’s their best 6-game xG supremacy since our records began in 2014. pic.twitter.com/2Cm0Tu6j54
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) February 27, 2024
Arsenal’s Expected Goals Against Shows Defense in Gleaming Light
Arsenal’s ability to score more goals than Manchester City and one less than Liverpool, all the while without a prolific goalscorer and several injuries to Gabriel Jesus is undoubtedly a monumental achievement.
However, as the serial-winning Sir Alex Ferguson famously said, “attack wins you games, defence wins you titles.”
If that mantra is to be taken at face value, Arsenal have as strong a claim to the title as any in this year’s three-horse title race.
23 goals conceded in 26 games is evidence of their remarkable ability to shut teams out. A combination of suffocating possession of the ball, and unyielding pressure off it, means the vast majority of opposition teams have found it difficult to score against the Gunners.
Having William Saliba – who has the most clean sheets in the Premier League (10) – fully fit has shown why they wilted so easily under pressure in the final few months of the season in his absence.
His partner Gabriel is – probably – the most under-appreciated defender in the league. The two make for a colossal pairing with little-to-no mistakes in their game.
Particularly since the turn of the year, the Arsenal defence have taken their performances to another level. They’ve allowed just 1.9xG across six league games. That’s 3.5 times less than Man City and more than 10 times less than Newcastle, who have both played an extra game.
Interestingly, Arsenal have actually underperformed on their expected goals against (xGA). They have an xGA of 21.70, but have conceded 23. Although not a huge underperformance, it still indicates that the Gunners are prone to conceding the odd unnecessary goal, which they must eliminate if they are to push Manchester City and Liverpool to the wire.
- Arsenal – 21.92
- Manchester City – 25.55
- Liverpool – 32.81
- Everton – 38.77
- Brighton – 39.77
Arsenal xG From Set Pieces Could Propel Gunners to Silverware
As previously eluded to, Arsenal’s carefully choreographed set pieces have been one of their chief sources of goals this campaign.
German set piece coach Nicolas Jover followed Mikel Arteta from Manchester City to Arsenal in 2021, and has proven a transformative figure when it comes to their fortunes from dead-ball situations.
Investing in physically demanding and imposing players like the Arsenal of old has of course helped them in the air, but Jover is a master of deception.
18 goals from set pieces is three more than the next-nearest Everton, and equates to around 0.7 goals per-game. The sense of urgency from opposition teams when they concede a corner against Arsenal is clear to see, and it has become one of their (not-so) secret weapons when struggling for goals.
Declan Rice’s ability from a dead-ball has seen him recently assigned corner duties. In his first 20 Premier League games with Arsenal, he took just three, but has since been handed a bigger responsibility. The shoo-in for signing of the season now has four assists from corners in his last six outings.
Their threat from set pieces is best reflected by the fact they have outperformed their xG from dead-ball situations (xGSP) by one.
It is also worth noting that they have already tied their own season record for goals from corners (13) with 12 games left to play.
Premier League xGSP Leaders
- Arsenal – 17
- Liverpool – 16.2
- Brentford – 14.2
- Everton – 13.6
- Newcastle – 13.2
Stats courtesy of xGscore
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