See below our Aintree Festival trends for the main ITV races on Thursday 11th April 2024 as the big three-day meeting gets going. Apply these Grand National Meeting stats to each race to whittle down the runners and find the best profile based on previous winners of the race.
Hopefully these Aintree Festival trends will point you in the direction of a few winners!
Aintree Festival Trends and Stats: Day One (Thursday, 11th April 2024)
On the opening day of the 2024 Aintree Grand National Festival sees four Grade One races that include the William Hill Aintree Hurdle, a race trainer Nicky Henderson has won six times in the last 12 years. We’ve also got the Aintree Bowl, which is a prize that 15 of the last 20 winners had raced at the Cheltenham Festival.
The Foxhunters, which is run over the National fences, is always a spectacle on the opening day. Where the Irish have won four of the last nine, plus five of the last nine winners also hailed from the top four in the betting.
We’ve also got the Red Rum Handicap Chase – a contest that trainer Henry De Bromhead has a fine record in, including wininng the pot in 2023 with the Rachael Blackmore-ridden Dancing On My Own.
Use our Aintree Festival trends to help find the winners on day one.
Plus, Andy Newton’s also got all the key trends for the Aintree Grand National here and the day two and day three main races covered too.
Aintree Festival Trends: Grand National Meeting Stats (Thursday 11th April 2024)
2.20pm – Boodles Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle 4yo (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo) 2m1f ITV
- 17/20 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
- 16/20 – Finished in the top three last time out
- 14/20 – Ran in the Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
- 13/20 – Priced 3/1 or shorter
- 9/20 – Favourites
- 7/20 – Won last time out
- 5/20 – Won by trainer Alan King (4-from-8 since 2007)
- 4/20 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
- 3/20 – Irish-trained winners
- 2/20 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (2 of last 5)
- 16/18 – Won at least twice over hurdles
- 14/18 – Priced 13/2 or shorter
- 13/18 – Winners were placed at worst at the Cheltenham Festival
- 13/18 – Previous Grade 1 or 2 winners that season
- 13/18 – Raced at least 4 times over hurdles
- 11/18 – Placed in the top 3 in the Triumph Hurdle
- 12/16 – Trained by Willie Mullins, Alan King, Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls
- 10/15 – Started their careers in France
- Horses rated 152+ are 5 from 8 (since 2007)
- Only 3 of the last 22 winners were Irish-trained
- French-bred horses have won 13 of the last 24 (54%) runnings – including 6 of the last 8
- Only 5/33 winners hadn’t won at least twice over hurdles
2023 Winner: Zenta (5/4)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Mark Walsh
2.55pm – William Hill Bowl Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5yo+) 3m1f ITV
- 18/20 – Failed to win last time out
- 15/20 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
- 12/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
- 11/20 – Raced in the Gold Cup (Cheltenham) that season
- 7/20 – Aged in double-figures
- 7/20 – Favourites (5 of the last 6)
- 5/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (6 wins in total)
- 5/9 – Top-rated horse in the field
- 4/20 – Won by the Pipe stable
- 4/9 – Won that season’s King George VI Chase
- 11 of the last 14 (79%) winners aged 9 or younger
- 10 of the last 13 winners returned 7/2 or less
- 6 of the last 8 market leaders (favs) have won
- All of the last 12 winners DIDN’T win their last race
- Trainer Willie Mullins is 2-from-5
- 26/39 (67%) winners ran in that season’s King George
- 25/39 (64%) winners ran in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
- 14/26 (54%) winners were placed fourth or better in that season’s King George VI Chase
- Just 4 of the last 27 winners were Irish-trained
- 5 of the last 11 winners wore headgear
- 10 of the last 13 were favourite or second favourite
- 2nd or 3rd favourites have won 13 of the last 30 (43%) renewals and 6 of the last 13 (46%)
- 6 of the last 12 winners had run in this race previously
- No last-time out winner since 2010
2023 Winner: Shishkin (7/4 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico de Boinville
3.30pm – William Hill Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV
- 19/20 – Aged 8 or younger
- 16/20 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
- 16/20 – Priced 6/1 or shorter
- 13/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
- 12/20 – Raced in the Champion Hurdle last time out
- 10/20 – Irish-trained winners, plus 20 of the last 46
- 6/20 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (6 of the last 12)
- 6/20 – Favourites (2 joint)
- 5/20 – Won last race
- 24 of the last 29 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
- 45 of the last 46 winners aged 8 or younger
- 14 of the last 29 (48%) winners trained in Ireland
- 32 of the last 46 (70%) winners ran in that season’s Champion Hurdle
- 9 of the last 13 winners (69%) were placed in the top 4 of that season’s Champion Hurdle
- 14 of the last 17 winners (including last 11) had won a Grade 1 before
- 9 of the last 22 (41%) winners had won at this meeting before
- Only 6 Champion Hurdle winners since 1999 have run – but 4 have won
- The last 15 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
- Only 4 winning outright favourites since 2000
- Every past British-trained winner had raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
- Only 2 winning 5 year-olds in the last 34 runnings
- Only 2 of the last 20 Champion Hurdle runners-up to race have won
2023 Winner: Constitution Hill (2/15 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico de Boinville
4.05pm – Randox Foxhunters´ Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2) (6yo+) 2m5f ITV
- 19/20 – Aged 9 or older (Just 3 of the last 39 winners were younger than 9)
- 15/20 – Priced 13/2 or shorter in the betting
- 14/20 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
- 14/20 – Aged in double-figures
- 9/20 – Won their last race
- 8/20 – Raced in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ last time out
- 5/20 – Favourites (1 joint)
- 14 of the last 18 (78%) winners were aged 10 or older
- Irish-trained runners have won 4 of the last 9 runnings
- 5 of the last 9 winners were placed in the top 4 in last season’s race
- 21 of the last 30 (70%) winners went off favourite or second favourite
- 25 of the last 30 winners had won a race earlier that campaign
- Just 3 of the last 39 winners were aged younger than 9
- 24 of the last 30 (80%) winners came from the top 4 in the market and returned at single-figures in the betting.
- 11 of the last 18 winners had run over these National-style fences before
- Ex-handicap horses have won 13 of the last 21 (65%) renewals
2023 Winner: Famous Clermont (9/2)
Trainer: C R Barber
Jockey: William Biddick
4.40pm – The Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (Class 1) (5yo+) 2m ITV
- 18/20 – Aged 9 or younger
- 17/20 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
- 14/20 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
- 14/20 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
- 13/20 – Unplaced last time out
- 10/20 – Aged 7 or younger
- 10/20 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
- 4/20 – Won their last race
- 4/20 – Favourites (1 co)
- 3/20 – Irish-trained winners
- 15 of the last 21 winners returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
- 18 of the last 22 winners were rated 139 or lower
- Just 3 winners older than 9 years-old since 1988
- 4 of the last 15 winners were ridden by conditional jockeys
- Top 5 in the betting have won 17 of the last 25 (68%) runnings
- 20 of the last 23 (87%) winners carried 11-2 or less
- 7 of the last 24 (29%) winners ran in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual (Cheltenham)
- 8 of the last 9 winners DIDN’T run at the Cheltenham Festival that campaign
- 7 of the last 8 winners were Irish-bred
- Respect trainer Henry De Bromhead – winner 2019 & 2023 and 4 placed horses
2023 Winner: Dancing On My Own (15/2)
Trainer: Henry de Bromhead
Jockey Rachael Blackmore
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