Use our 2023 Irish Oaks trends to find the best profiles based on past winners of the race. It’s a prize the Aidan O’Brien yard have won six times over the years and have another strong hand this Saturday.
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2023 Irish Oaks Trends to Help You Find The Winner
We’ve Group One horse racing action in Ireland this Saturday as some of the best 3 year-old fillies line-up for the Irish Oaks at the Curragh (3:45pm).
It’s a prize the Aidan O’Brien yard have won six times over the years – no surprises here – and they need just one more success in the race to be the winning-most stable in the history of the race.
They are currently sharing the spoils with Sir Michael Stoute.
O’Brien has another strong hand this year too, with the likely first and second favourites – Savethelastdance, who was runner-up in the English Oaks, and Royal Ascot Ribblesdale Stakes winner Warm Heart.
Both are expected to be popular in the market with the best horse racing betting sites.
So, to help find the winner – let’s look at the key 2023 Irish Oaks trends to look out for and hopefully by applying these to the final eight runners it will help point you in the direction of Saturday’s big Curragh Group One winner.
What Date & Time Is The 2023 Irish Oaks?
đź“…Time/Date: 3:45pm (Saturday, 22nd July 2023)
🏇Racecourse: Curragh
💰 Winner: €285,000
đź“ş TV: RacingTV / ITV
🎲 Odds: Savethelastdance 11/10 | Warm Heart 7/2 | Bluestocking 9/2 | Lumiere Rock 9/1
RELATED: Aidan O’Brien Indicates He Could Run FIVE Horses In The King George at Ascot
2023 Irish Oaks Trends
See below the last 20 runnings of the Irish Oaks and the key trends to look out for.
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- 19/20 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
- 18/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 16/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
- 15/20 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
- 15/20 – Won last time out
- 14/20 – Had won between 1-2 times before
- 13/20 – Placed favourites
- 12/20 – Won over 1m4f before
- 9/20 – Won by a UK-based trainer
- 9/20 – Ran in the Epsom Oaks last time out
- 8/20 – Winning distance, 3 lengths or more
- 8/20 – Winning favourites
- 7/20 – Had won a Group One before
- 6/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
- 6/20 – Won the Epsom Oaks last time out
- 4/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total)
- 2/20 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 6)
RELATED: Irish Oaks Runners Guide 2023 – All Aces for Aidan O’Brien with Warm Heart & Savethelastdance
95% Of The Last 20 Winners Ran In The Last 6 Weeks
Having had a recent run – well, an outing in the last 6 weeks – is the first Irish Oaks trend to have on your side.
A massive 19 of the last 20 winners ticked this stat, which is a plus for most but one of the O’Brien fancied runners Savethelastdance for me was last in action 50 days ago in the Epsom Oaks (2nd).
While Be Happy, who is also trained by O’Brien, last ran 70 days ago, so is another to fall down here.
Respect Horses That Finished 1st or 2nd Recently
Finishing first or second in their most recent race is next up as a massive 90% of the last 20 Irish Oaks winners fell into this category.
Again, the bulk of the runners will be okay here, but it’s worth noting that Ribblesdale Stakes third Bluestocking was third in that Royal Ascot race, so would have this stat to overcome.
75% Of The Last 20 Winners Won Last Time Out
We can also take this ‘recent form’ Irish Oaks trend further by knowing that winning last time out is a plus too. 15 of the last 20 winners came to the Curragh having been successful in their most recent run.
Another negative for English Oaks runner-up Savethelastdance and most of the rest.
In fact, the only last-time-out winner in the race is Warm Heart, who we saw romp away with the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot last time (watch below).
The Irish Oaks Betting Market Is Often A Great Guide
With 75% of the last 20 Irish Oaks winners returning 9/2 or shorter in the betting this tells us the winners is often found towards the head of the market.
The last two winners were favourites too (Snowfall and Magical Lagoon) and we’ve seen eight winning market leaders in the last 20 runnings too (40%).
65% of favourites have been placed too and 80% of the last 20 winners hailed from the top three in the betting – good news, for Savethelastdance, Warm Heart and Bluestocking.
Winning Form Over 1m4f Is Something To Look For
With the Irish Oaks run over a trip of 1m4f, then having winning form over this distance is an obvious advantage. This is backed up with 60% of the last 20 winners already past victors over this yardage.
Savethelastdance has won over 1m3 1/2f – so almost – when romping away with the Cheshire Oaks, but of the likely Irish Oaks runners only Warm Heart and Azazat have won over 1m4f in the past.
RELATED: Newbury & Market Rasen Horse Racing Trends: ITV Racing Stats For Saturday 22nd July 2023
45% Of The Last 20 Winners Ran In The Epsom Oaks Last Time
Epsom Oaks winners have a fair record in the race too – with 6 of the last 20 doubling up at the Curragh. The last being Snowfall in 2021, with Enable (2017), Snow Fairy (2010) and Sariska (2009) others to repeat the feat.
This year’s Epsom Oaks winner Soul Sister won’t be running though.
However, horses that just ran in the Epsom race are also worth noting with 45% of the last 20 Irish Oaks winners having also contested the English version. Only Savethelastdance was in Epsom action earlier this season (watch below).
Trainer Aidan O’Brien Has Six Irish Oaks Wins Under His Belt
Finally, the Irish Oaks has been another homeland race that been dominated by trained Aidan O’Brien. He’s mopped up six successes over the years with the first coming in 2006 with Alexandrova and his most recent Snowfall in 2021.
Of the 8 entries, O’Brien is mob-handed half the field – Savethelastdance, Warm Heart, Be Happy & Library.
Recent Irish Oaks Winners
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- 2022 – MAGICAL LAGOON (5/4 fav)
- 2021 – SNOWFALL (2/7 fav)
- 2020 – EVEN SO (10/1)
- 2019 – STAR CATCHER (7/2)
- 2018 – SEA OF CLASS (11/4)
- 2017 – ENABLE (2/5 fav)
- 2016 – SEVENTH HEAVEN (14/1)
- 2015 – COVERT LOVE (7/1)
- 2014 – BRACELET (10/1)
- 2013 – CHICQUITA (9/2)
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Irish Oaks Betting Odds
We take a look at the latest 2023 Irish Oaks betting odds from Paddy Power.
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- Savethelastdance @ 11/10
- Warm Heart @ 7/2
- Bluestocking @ 9/2
- Lumiere Rock @ 9/1
- Azazat @ 9/1
- Be Happy @ 20/1
- Comhra @ 40/1
- Library @ 66/1
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Note: Odds are subject to change and others on request
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WATCH: MAGICAL LAGOON Winning The 2023 Irish Oaks
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