Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Royal Ascot, Hamilton, Ripon and Nottingham for his four stats-based selections on Wednesday, June 19th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
HAMILTON 1.45
TWOFORTHEGUTTER (system – Expert Eye, won last time out, recent run)
Progeny of the Expert Eye tend to hold their form well and the sire’s last time out winners are 22 from 79 (28% strike-rate) for a small loss of £2.49 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 16.19, A/E = 1.36). Those who were returned to the track within a fortnight of their latest start were 12 from 22 (54.6%) for a profit of £22.78. TWOFORTEHGUTTER, successful over a furlong shorter trip here 13 days ago, can follow up.
Royal ASCOT 3.45
BREEGE (system – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes, top four last time out)
Four-year-olds who finished in the top four in their prep race have won 14 of the last 15 renewals of the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes and backing all 89 qualifiers blind would have returned a profit of £43.66 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 9.32, A/E = 1.50). BREEGE, one of six qualifiers today, has placed in all three visits to Ascot and can reward each-way support once again.
RIPON 6.35
THE BOBSTER (since – Invincible Spirit, first run since gelded)
THE BOBSTER ran a race full of promise on soft ground at Beverley on his debut last year, finishing fourth of 12 after running green and was drawn out of it when trailing home last of 11 in a bog at Redcar next time. Tonight’s quicker going will suit, and he’s been gelded ahead of this reappearance outing. Progeny of Invincible Spirit have a good strike-rate on the Flat on their first run since a gelding operation (60 winners from 352 bets, 17.1%), with those who were returning from a break of 150 days or longer landing 41 of their 212 starts (19.3%) for a profit of £14.51.
NOTTINGHAM 7.20
THE PUG (system – recent run)
THE PUG could only finish in eighth place at Bath on June 7th but that run, his first for 64 days, would have been needed and he’s best judged on his form figures in handicap company after a recent run (within 28 days) of 32162113 (3-8) with the wins at 15-2, 4-1 and 7-2. The sixth place is easily excused as he failed to handle the right-handed track at Kempton, going down by 50 lengths. Sylvester Kirk’s four-year-old has only once been asked to race right-handed since that run, trailing home 77 lengths behind the winner after hanging left throughout at Leicester.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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