Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the Flat turf meetings at Goodwood and Musselburgh for his has four stats-based selections on Friday, May 3rd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
GOODWOOD 1.30
DEVIL’S POINT (system – Jamie Spencer, Goodwood)
Jamie Spencer rides Goodwood well and is particularly effective when the mud is flying, often judging the pace to perfection. Since the spring of 2016, he has scored on 20 of his 131 mounts at the Sussex venue (15.3%) for a profit of £61.38 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 15.49, A/E = 1.29) and with a headwind possible today we could be in prime Spencer territory. DEVIL’S POINT, placed in Group 3 company at Deauville on last month’s reappearance, is likely to take some beating in this Class 2 conditions contest.
MUSSELBURGH 2.50
TREAT OF TREATS (system – Kodiac, first-time blinkers, turf, 5f-7f)
Progeny of the sire Kodiac do well when fitted with first-time blinkers, especially over the shorter trips (5f-7f) on turf, landing 20 of their 142 starts (14.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £63.90 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 11.01, A/E = 1.82). Kevin Ryan’s TREAT OF TREATS looks well drawn in stall 8 and an aggressive ride against the rail could be just the ticket on her first start at the minimum trip.
MUSSELBURGH 4.00
SUMMIT (system – David O’Meara, second run for the yard, turf)
David O’Meara has a good strike-rate on turf with horses having their second start for him after moving yards, with 49 of the 228 qualifiers winning (17%) for a small loss of £1.39 to a £1 level stake at SP. We can turn the loss into a profit by only backing those who raced within the past four weeks and who finished in the top four on their stable debut (34 winners from 119 bets, 28.6%, +£29.11). SUMMIT, too fresh and keen when a modest second at Ripon on last month’s seasonal/stable debut, can go one better.
GOODWOOD 4.25
PORTSMOUTH (system – Andrew Balding, second run since gelded, won last time out)
PORTSMOUTH took a step forward when making his seasonal/handicap debut at Epsom last week, scoring by just over three lengths on his first start since a gelding operation. Andrew Balding has a good recent record with his runners on their second start since being gelded and the last-time out winners are ten from 20 since racing resumed after lockdown in June 2020 for a profit of £18.41 to the usual £1 stake.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
17/03/23
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
NO CODE REQUIRED
Claim Offer
Learn More
0
0
18+ BeGambleAware.org, T&Cs apply. New customers, opt-in and deposit within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 1.5 or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 free bets. Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with odds of 1.3 or greater, stake not returned. T&C’s Apply.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
New Customers – Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets with BetUK
Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
- New customers aged 18 or over opt in and stake £10+ on any sporting event.
- The minimum odds for a qualifying bet are 1/2 (1.50).
- Once the qualifying bet settles 3x £10 free bets will be awarded to your account.
- Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with odds of 3/10 (1.30) or greater.
- Void, cashed out, partially cashed out bets do not qualify.
- Each Way bets, system bets and profit boost are not permitted for qualifying bet.
- Free bets expire after 7 days of the qualifying bet settling, are non-withdrawable and stakes not returned with winnings.
- Further terms and conditions apply.
Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsLens.
- View the latest horse racing results from the UK and Ireland.
Add Sportslens to your Google News Feed!
