Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Pontefract, Ffos Las and Windsor for his four stats-based picks on Monday, April 22nd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
PONTEFRACT 2.22
CASSANOS LAD (system – Mick Easterby, turf handicaps in April)
CASSANOS LAD (stall 1) qualifies as a bet for me on a Pontefract low-draw angle as well as on a trainer system. Mick & David Easterby do well with turf handicappers in the month of April, scoring with 44 of the 289 qualifiers since 2012 (15.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £112.75 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 25.28, A/E = 1.74). Those figures received a timely boost when Two Brothers recorded a 20-1 win at Thirsk on Saturday night and Cassanos Lad is taken to keep the ball rolling.
FFOS LAS 3.12
IMPERIAL SAINT (system – Philip Hobbs & Johnson White, Ffos Las handicaps)
Since 2016, the Hobbs (and now Hobbs & White) yard has a 12 from 46 record in Ffos Las handicaps for a profit of £20.58 to the usual £1 stake at SP (expected winners = 6.01, A/E = 2.0). Younger horses (aged eight or younger) who were contested Class 4 or lower contests were 11 from 32 (+£30.83) and IMPERIAL SAINT, placed in all three starts since November’s Ludlow success on his rules debut, can notch another victory.
FFOS LAS 3.42
ROUGE DE L’QUEST (system – Sean Bowen, Ffos Las chases)
Sean Bowen has a fine record when riding over the larger obstacles at Ffos Las, scoring on 41 of his 146 mounts (28.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £61.24 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 26.63, A/E = 1.54). ROUGE DE L’QUEST, short-headed at Chepstow last time, won here on his penultimate start and the son of Fame And Glory can continue his progression.
WINDSOR 4.10
GHERKIN (system – Stuart Kittow, Turf handicaps, March/April, fresh)
Since 2010, backing Stuart Kittow’s runners in turf handicaps in March/April who were returning from a break of at least 50 days, would have found 16 winners from 58 bets for a profit of £42.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. GHERKIN finished second by a neck in his race on his reappearance to years ago and his only subsequent Windsor run saw him score off a 4lb higher mark than today’s. The drying ground is not 100% ideal but he’s well drawn in stall 1 and looks worth a punt.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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