Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Pontefract for his two stats-based selections on Tuesday, April 2nd. Andrew is taking a short break and his next column will on Friday, April 5th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
PONTEFRACT 1.45
DANDY DEVIL (system – Newcastle AW debut winners next time out)
All-weather form is still regarded as the poor relation of turf form and can be under-valued in the market. Backing horses on their second career start who won on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface on their debuts would have found 53 winners from 153 bets (34% strike-rate) for a profit of £22.60 to a £1 level stake at SP, with the bulk of the profits coming from those who were switching to turf. Richard Fahey’s DANDY DEVIL, successful in a 5f Newcastle maiden on his debut 20 days ago despite a tricky draw in stall 1, is taken to maintain his 100% record in a race his trainer won last year.
PONTEFRACT 4.15
LORD MELBOURNE (system – Simon & Ed Crisford, handicap debut)
The Crisford yard has a good record with horses making their handicap debuts, scoring with 68 of the 273 qualifiers (24.9% strike-rate) for a profit of £10.68 to a £1 level stake at SP. LORD MELBOURNE’s Wolverhampton 1m4f maiden fourth to Composite in December has been franked by subsequent wins for the winner/third and the son of Wootton Bassett is bred to handle today’s heavy going.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
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