Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found 4-1 Southwell winner DEAL MAKER on Sunday and starts the new week with four stats-based selections on Easter Monday (April 1st). Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
KEMPTON 1.45
BOWNDER (system – January foals, early season 2yo races)
Since 2016, backing January foals in early-season (March/April) two-year-old races would have found 30 winners from 169 runners (17.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £72.97 to a £1 level stake at SP. Tanager (tipped in this column) was a 12-1 winner on this angle at Chelmsford last week and perhaps BOWNDER, the 25-1 outsider of five at the time of writing, can cause another upset.
WOLVERHAMPTON 2.15
PAPPANO (system – John & Thady Gosden, Nathaniel)
John Gosden trained Nathanial who ran Frankel to half a length when the pair made their racecourse debuts in August 2010, and he went on to land two Group 1s before a career at stud. The Gosden yard has done well with the sire’s progeny, scoring with 35 of the 111 runners (31.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £17.41 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 26.82, A/E = 1.31). PAPPANO was very green when a 6-1 half-length third at Kempton on his debut in December and can go two places better today.
FAKENHAM 3.07
UP FOR PAROL (system – 8yos in veterans’ handicap hurdles)
Eight-year-olds, the youngest age group eligible to take part in veterans’ handicap hurdles, show a profit if backed blind at SP and out-perform their older rivals. Those who had the benefit of a recent run (within the past six weeks) won ten of their 45 starts for a profit of £45.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. There are only three eight-year-olds in today’s line-up and only one of them, UP FOR PAROL, had had a recent run. He hasn’t won for some time but his trainer, Jamie Snowden, has scored with five of his last 11 runners and today could be his day.
WOLVERHAMPTON 3.28
INSPIRED KNOWHOW (system – Marco Botti, turf to Tapeta switchers)
Marco Botti’s INSPIRED KNOWHOW qualifies as a bet for me on five individual systems, including the trainers fine record with turf to Tapeta switchers. He’s won with 58 of the 257 qualifiers (21.8%) here at Wolverhampton for a profit of £67.97 (expected winners = 38.51, A/E = 1.45) and the four-year-old gelding, third over course and distance on his handicap debut last spring, could be worth chancing despite pulling up lame at Doncaster on his sole subsequent start.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
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