The Cheltenham favourites, in ALL 28 Festival races at this month’s four-day meeting, are always going to be the subject of plenty of airtime. Plus, with 32% of jollies winning at the 2023 meeting, then the bookmakers are going to have to tread carefully.
However, there are still TWO Cheltenham races in the last decade that favourite backers have had a tough time finding the winner – let’s reveal more.
2023 Saw Nine Winning Cheltenham Favourites Reward Backers
Rewind 12 months and running alongside another Willie Mullins Cheltenham Festival show, horse racing fans also witnessed 32% (9-from-28) of favourites winning, and looking at some of the races – with big odds-on shots in several – this strike-rate could easily hit between 35-40% in 2024.
Plus, these 2023 Cheltenham favourites stats came with NO winning market leader from the seven Thursday races. With five of the nine favs (or joint-favs) on day one.
State Man (Champion Hurdle) and Lossiemouth (Mares’ Hurdle) will be the two big Cheltenham bankers on the Tuesday, so it will be a shock if we’re not seeing at least two+ winning jollies on the opening afternoon to start us off.
In fact, the Champion Hurdle and the Arkle, which is also run on day one, are the two races with the best favourites strike-rate. In the last 10 years they’ve won a massive 70% in each race.
However, the better news for the bookies and the best UK horse racing betting sites is there are still TWO Cheltenham Festival races that favourite backers have struggled in.
No Winning Cheltenham Favourite in TWO Festival Races In The Last 10 Years
See below the only two races from the last 10 runnings that HAVEN’T seen a winning favourite or joint-favourite.
However, note the Mares’ Chase on the final day has only had three runnings and is also yet to see a winning market leader – despite the trio of winners all returning 9/4 or shorter.
The two races with more history, that have winless favourites in the last 10 years, also BOTH come on the final day – Friday 15th March 2024.
Step forward the Albert Barlett Novices’ Hurdle and the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle – neither race has had a winning jolly in the last 10 runnings.
Related: How Many Cheltenham Favourites Win?
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Fri 15th March, 2024):
- 0/10 Winning Favourites
- 2023 Winner: Stay Away Fay (18/1)
- Last Winning Favourite (2013)
- Average Winning SP (10 years) 21/1
12 months ago we saw the Paul Nicholls-trained Stay Away Fay win at 18/1 (watch below) and this also matched the price of the 2022 winner The Nice Guy for Willie Mullins. In hindsight, racing fans that didn’t back them will be kicking themselves being trained by this powerful duo.
We’ve also saw the subsequent Gold Cup winner – Minella Indo – remarkably win the Albert Barlett at a stonking 50/1 in 2019, while Very Wood and Kilbricken Storm both returned 33/1 in the last 10 years.
All this means the average winning SP in the Albert Bartlet over the last 10 years is a massive 21/1. Therefore, don’t be afraid to look further down the market.
The last winning Cheltenham favourite in the race was the AP McCoy-ridden At Fishers Cross in 2013, who came back at 11/8 (fav).
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Fri 15th March, 2024)
- 0/10 Winning Favourites
- 2023 Winner: Iroko (6/1)
- Last Winning Favourite (2011)
- Average Winning SP (10 years) 11/1
Then, if you’ve had a tough Festival and you are looking to ‘get out of jail’ in the lucky last – you might want to look away now.
The Martin Pipe, which brings the curtain down on the Festival these days, also hasn’t been kind for favourite followers – with zero winning jollies in the last 10 years.
That said, we’ve still saw Iroko (6/1) win 12 months ago as one of those high up in the betting and 80% of the last 10 winners still returned 12/1 or shorter.
Indefatigable (25/1) has been the biggest-priced Martin Pipe winner since 2014, while the average winning SP over this period is 11/1.
But, since the race started in 2009, there has only been ONE winning Martin Pipe favourite – Sir Des Champs (9/2 fav) – in 2011 (watch below).
Cheltenham Festival Date and Running Order 2024
Tuesday 12th March 2024
- 1.30: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (2m)
- 2.10: Arkle Novices’ Chase (2m)
- 2.50: Ultima Handicap Chase (3m 1f)
- 3.30: Champion Hurdle (2m)
- 4.10: Mares’ Hurdle (2m 3f)
- 4.50: Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (2m)
- 5.30: National Hunt Chase (3m 5f)
Wednesday 13th March 2024
- 1.30: Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle (2m 5f)
- 2.10: Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (3m)
- 2.50: Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) (2m 5f)
- 3.30: Queen Mother Champion Chase (2m)
- 4.10: Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (3m 5f)
- 4.50: Grand Annual Handicap Chase (2m)
- 5.30: Champion Bumper (2m)
Thursday 14th March 2024
- 1.30: Turners Novices’ Chase (2m 3f)
- 2.10: Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle (3m)
- 2.50: Ryanair Chase (2m 4f)
- 3.30: Stayers’ Hurdle (3m)
- 4.10: TrustATrader Plate (Handicap Chase) (2m 4f)
- 4.50: Mares Novices’ Hurdle (2m)
- 5.30: Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase) (3m 2f)
Friday 15th March 2024
- 1.30: Triumph Hurdle (2m)
- 2.10: County Hurdle (Handicap) (2m)
- 2.50: Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (3m)
- 3.30: Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m 2f)
- 4.10: St James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Hunters’ Chase (3m 2f)
- 4.50: Mares’ Chase (2m 4f)
- 5.30: Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (2m 4f)
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