Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew was on the mark with Optician on Friday and has five selections across four races on Saturday, February 10th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
NEWBURY 3.15
LOOKAWAY & ALTOBELLI (system – Betfair Hurdle, 7yo or younger, second or third in a Class A contest last time out)
I’ve gone round in circles with the Betfair Hurdle but there’s a good system for locating the winner….backing horses who finished second or third in a Class A contest in their prep race, aged seven or younger, has found six of the seven winners since 2016 (from 25 bets) for a profit of £45.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who ran in a non-handicap last time were six from 13 (+£57.50). LOOKAWAY, runner-up in the Challow Hurdle here last time, won’t be inconvenienced by the cut back in trip and should give it a good go from the front, though I also want to back ALTOBELLI, third in a Grade 3 handicap hurdle at Ascot last time when the steady early pace and good ground were far from ideal.
NEWCASTLE 3.35
RISE HALL (system – top four from the front over 1m2f+ at Newcastle last time out)
It remains difficult to win from the front over distances of 1m2f+ on Newcastle Tapeta surface and horses that run well (defined as finishing in the first four) on the round course often make good bets next time, landing 60 of their 297 starts (20.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £87.81 to a £1 level stake at SP. RISE HALL made the running when only going down by a length and a half in fourth place in a 1m2f Class 5 handicap at Newcastle last time and though competing over the same track and trip tonight, he will hopefully revert to more patient tactics.
NEWBURY 3.50
MAKIN’YOURMINDUP (system – course direction)
The Paul Nicholls-trained MAKIN’YOURMINDUP arrives here on the back of three short-priced defeats but all took place on right-handed tracks, and he jumped out to his left when runner-up at Leicester last time. His record on this direction stands at 6111 (3-4), with the defeat when 9-1 for a Chepstow bumper on his debut.
NEWCASTLE 5.45
DUKE WELLINGTON (system – Archie Watson, newcomers, all-weather, colts and geldings)
Archie Watson has a fine record with newcomers on the all-weather, especially of we ignore the fillies. He’s scored with 33 of the 112 qualifiers (29.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £45.58 to a £1 level stake at SP and DUKE WELLINGTON, a gelded son of Soldier’s Call, could be up to making a winning debut.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
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