Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the DRF at Leopardstown and Newcastle for his four stats-based selections on Sunday, February 4th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
LEOPARDSTOWN 12.40
RISK BELLE (system – Dublin Racing Festival, 2m2f Listed mares’ handicap hurdle, top four finish in Class A race last time out)
This 2m2f Listed mares’ handicap hurdle usually goes to a runner who finished in the top four in a Class A contest last time out. Following this system would have found five of the six previous winners (from 21 bets) for a profit of £23.08 to a £1 level stake at SP. There are two qualifiers this year – RISKE BELLE and Natural Look, with preference for the first-named. The five-year-old started as favourite to beat Jetara in a Grade 3 contest here last time, finishing third after not quite seeing out the trip on heavy ground. The drop in distance and return to quicker ground will suit.
LEOPARDSTOWN 3.50
CONYERS HILL (system – damsire Midnight Legend, February to April)
Horses with Midnight Legend as their sire or damsire tend to come good in the second half of the peak jumps season and the damsire score, over hurdles/fences from February to April, stands at 37 winners from 225 bets (16.4%) for a profit of £29.33 to a £1 level stake at SP. The faster the ground, the greater the strike-rate and CONYERS HILL be suited by the drying conditions.
NEWCASTLE 6.00
POCKLEY (system – Linda Perratt, all-weather, two or more runs in past three months)
Since the beginning of last year, Linda Perratt is 20 from 76 with her all-weather runners for a profit of £71.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who had raced at least twice in the past three months were 20 from 62 for a profit of £85.75. POCKLEY has run with credit from off the pace in 5f Wolverhampton handicaps the last twice and will be happier back at Newcastle, the scene of his latest success.
NEWCASTLE 6.30
TOURNELLE (system – Newcastle AW debut winners, next time out)
Horses who make a winning racecourse debut on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface often make good bets to follow up, landing 52 of their 149 starts (34.9% strike-rate) for a profit of £25.60. True Promise, the most recent qualifier, won here on Friday when tipped in this column and perhaps George Boughey’s TOURNELLE can follow suit.
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Related
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