Grand Sefton Chase Trends 2023: Irish Raider Ticks Aintree Stats at 12/1

Use our Grand Sefton Chase trends for Saturday’s big Aintree race, which is run over the Grand National-style fences, to put history on your side and find the best profiles based on past winners.

Last Year’s Grand Sefton Runner- Up Gesskille Back For More

12 months ago the Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero-trained Gesskille was a nose runner-up in the Grand Sefton Chase (watch below) and with another year on his back returns in a bid to go one better.

The best UK horse racing betting sites are making him the 2023 Grand Sefton Chase favourite and it’s easy to see why.

We know the Grand National-style fences suit, plus at the age of just seven he’s still got plenty of improvement to come. He’s also returned this season with a recent win in France (Auteuil) and is only 5lbs higher than last year.

The Aintree ground will be a lot softer this time, but Gesskille has winning form in France on ‘very soft’ conditions, so underfoot conditions also won’t be an issue.

Last year’s winner Al Dancer is bypassing the race too and even though the third 12 months ago – Percussion – is back for more, Gesskille had him 8-lengths back that day.

However, does Gesskille tick the key 2023 Grand Sefton trends?  You can find out below.

Grand Sefton Chase 2023 Date and Time

📅Date: Saturday, 11th November 2023
🕙Time: 2:45pm
🏇Racecourse: Aintree
💰 Winner: £51,440
📺 TV: ITV4 / Racing TV

2.45 – Boylesports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV4

Key Grand Sefton Chase Trends For 2023

• 17/18 – 1-4 previous chase wins
• 16/18 – Rated 124+
• 16/18 – Aged 8 or older
• 14/18 – Won (chase) over at least 2m4f before
• 13/18 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
• 12/18 – Raced at Aintree before (5 over the GN style fences)
• 11/18 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
• 10/18 – Irish bred winners
• 9/18 – Priced in double-figures
• 8/18 – Finished in the top 4 in last race
• 4/18 – Favourites
• 3/18 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National
• 2/18 – Ridden by jockey Sean Bowen
• 1/18 – Won last race
• 14 of the last 17 winners were aged 8 or 9 years-old

Grand Sefton Chase Trends Point To Born By The Sea

The likley Grand Sefton Chase favourite – Gesskille – is respected, but with 89% of the last 18 winners aged 8 or older this is against the 7 year-old runner-up from last year. Plus, does seem a tad short in the betting now as the race approaches and punters latch onto last year’s silver medallist.

So, is there a bit more value further down the market?

Having a recent run is anther plus – 13 of the last 18 raced in the last four weeks, while carrying 10-12 or more has also been a good pointer.

Add in experience over these tricky Grand National fences and also being Irish-bred (10 of last 18), then BORN BY THE SEA ticks a lot of boxes.

This Irish raider from the Paul John Gilligan yard was a cracking 10th in the 2023 Grand National here back in April – beaten only 10 lengths behind Corach Rambler (watch below) – which is rock solid form.

Born By The Sea is back in trip here but on likely heavy ground that will be fine as we know he stays a lot further. He’s also been kept ticking over during the summer and was in action only last month at Galway.

He’ll, therefore, be fitter than most and is back here at Aintree actually rated 3lbs lower than his National run.

Of the rest, past Grand National-winning trainers Venetia Williams and Dr Richard Newland have both won this race in the past and their runners – Frero Banbou and Yccs Portocervo – look fair each-way options in the contest too.

Sat, 11 Nov 2023 , 14:45 GMT • Aintree • Jumps

12/1

Grand Sefton Chase (2:45: Aintree, Sat 11th Nov): Born By The Sea (E/W)

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Grand Sefton Chase Betting Odds with BetMGM

• Gesskille 3/1
• Fantastic Lady 11/2
• Half Shot 13/2
• Nassalam 7/1
• Cooper’s Cross 7/1
• Percussion 7/1
• Frero Banbou 8/1
• Born By The Sea 12/1
• 14/1 bar

Note: Odds are subject to change

1.

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WATCH: Al Dancer Winning The 2022 Grand Sefton Chase