Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the Flat meetings at Newmarket and Newcastle for his three stats-based picks on Friday, November 3rd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWCASTLE 2.30
MULCIBER (system – Marco Botti, turf to Tapeta switchers)
Marco Botti has a great record when switching one of his runners from turf to Tapeta, scoring with ten of the 42 qualifiers at Newcastle for a profit of £40.58 to a £1 level stake at SP and 55 of the 252 qualifiers at Wolverhampton (+£70.60). He’s yet to strike on this angle at Southwell since they replaced the Fibresand with Tapeta (0-8), though has had two finish second. MULCIBER found 7f on fast ground an insufficient test of stamina when sixth at Newmarket last time and looks a big player on his nursery debut.
NEWMARKET 3.10
SPLENDENT (system – Fast Company, soft or heavy going, Flat)
Backing all progeny of sire Fast Company on officially soft or heavy going on the Flat produced a small profit from a sample of over 1000 runners and Paul & Oliver Cole’s SPLENDENT looks interesting now back on a slow surface. The four-year-old finished a fine 14-1 third on fast ground in a Class 2 course and distance handicap on his latest outing and drops down to Class 3 level today.
NEWCASTLE 4.45
CARADONNA (system – Fastnet Rock, handicaps on Tapeta, ran on turf last time out)
Progeny of the sire Fastnet Rock do well on Tapeta and had we backed the handicappers who were switching from turf we’d have won 15 of our 80 bets and made a profit of £31.38 to a £1 level stake at SP. The Derek Shaw-trained CARADONNA has failed to beat a rival when huge prices (250-1 twice and 80-1) in her three runs on turf but might do better now switched to the all-weather. Her half-sister Sarinda was two from two on Tapeta and her two other half siblings to run in Britain both won on Polytrack.
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