More top-class Newmarket racing this Saturday with five races being shown live on ITV, that include the ultra-competitive Cesarewitch Handicap (2:40pm) and the Dewhurst Stakes (2:00pm), where we get a chance to see some of the potential stars of the future.
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Newmarket Racing Trends & Tips For ITV Racing On Saturday 14th Oct 2023
Day two of the Newmarket Future Champions Meeting this Saturday and you can help find the winners by using our key trends and stats for each of the ITV races below. Including the Group One Dewhurst Stakes, where the Aidan O’Brien-trained City Of Troy will be the short-priced favourite, but does he tick all the Dewhurst trends?
The Cesarewitch Handicap (2:40pm) will see a big field of 34 runners heading to post, so the trends here will help narrow down the entries. 20 of the last 21 winners were aged 4 or older, so this would be against the fancied 3 year-old Grand Providence.
81% of the last 21 winners also carried 9-2 or less, which would be a negative for the top 9 on the card, including the likely favourite Pied Piper, who has 9-3 in weight.
It’s also been a good race for trainer Willie Mullins, with 3 wins in the last 5 years and he’s got several entered – M C Muldoon, Zenon, Mr Escobar, Lot Of Joy and a rare flat ride for Grand National winning jockey Rachael Blackmore on Jackfinbar.
See below all five ITV races this Saturday and the best trends to apply to each race. These will help narrow down the runners and give you the best profiles of past winners.
1.25 – Emirates Autumn Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV
- 17/18 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
- 17/18 – Had won over at least 7f before
- 16/18 – Had raced at least twice before
- 15/18 – Won between 1-2 times before
- 14/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 14/18 – Placed favourites
- 13/18 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
- 12/18 – Won last time out
- 12/18 – Foaled in Feb or March
- 11/18 – Irish bred
- 7/18 – Godolphin winners
- 6/18 – Winning favourites
- 5/18 – Ridden by William Buick (4 of the last 8)
- 4/18 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (4 of the last 6)
- 1/18 – Irish-trained winners
- 8 of the last 16 winners came between stalls 3-5
- 2 of the last 6 winners came from stall 9
- Trainer Aidan O’Brien has NEVER won this race.
2.00 – Native Trail’s Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV
- 21/21 – Raced at least 3 times that season
- 19/21 – Yet to race at Newmarket (Rowley)
- 19/21 – Placed in their last race
- 16/21 – Won over 7f previously
- 16/21 – Favourites placed
- 15/21 – Won at least 3 times previously
- 15/21 – Won their last race
- 15/21 – Won a Group race previously
- 13/21 – Raced at either Goodwood (2), Longchamp (2) or the Curragh (9) last time out
- 13/21 – Foaled in either Feb or March
- 11/21 – Won by an Irish-based stable
- 11/21 – Favourites that won
- 8/21 – Placed horses that came from stall 2
- 7/21 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
- 7/21 – Finished in the top 2 in the 2000 Guineas the following season (4 won both)
- 6/21 – Returned 20/1 or bigger
- 6/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (7 wins in total)
- 3/21 – Godolphin-owned winners (3 of the last 11)
- 2/21 – Won the Epsom Derby the following season
- 1/21 – Winners that came from stall 1
- The Irish have won 11 of the last 17 runnings
- 3 of the last 13 winners came from stall 3
- Aidan O’Brien has trained 5 of the last 10 winners
2.40 – Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f ITV
- 20/21 – Aged 4 or older
- 17/21 – Carried 9-2 or less
- 16/21 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
- 16/21 – Had run within the last 2 months
- 15/21 – Finished 4th or better last time out
- 15/21 – Aged 5 or older
- 14/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
- 13/21 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
- 12/21 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
- 12/21 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
- 11/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
- 12/21 – Won by a NH trainer
- 11/21 – Had run at the track before
- 9/21 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
- 9/21 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price
- 9/21 – Placed favourites
- 8/21 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
- 5/21 – Winning mares
- 4/21 – Winning favourites
- 4/21 – Won last time out
- 3/21 – Winners from stall 1
- 3/21 – Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 5 winners)
- 2/21 – Trained by Mark Johnston
- The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 20/1
- Just 4 winning favourites since 1993
RELATED: Cesarewitch 2023 Trends: Newmarket Weight Stat You Can’t Ignore
3.15 – Ghayyth Zetland Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV4
- 16/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
- 15/16 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
- 15/16 – Won no more than twice before
- 14/16 – Foaled in Feb, Mar or April
- 14/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
- 14/16 – Had won over at least 1m before
- 12/16 – Placed favourites
- 10/16 – Drawn in stalls 2-5 (inc)
- 10/16 – Won last time out
- 7/16 – Winning favourites
- 6/16 – Came from stalls 2 or 3
- 3/16 – Ran at Leicester last time out
- 2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
- 4/16 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
- 1/16 – Winners from stall 1
- Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
- Irish-trained winners have won 3 of the last 8
3.50 Earthlight Darley Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m1f ITV4
- 9/10 – Won over a least 1m before
- 9/10 – Won between 2-4 times before
- 8/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
- 8/10 – Listed or Group winner
- 8/10 – Winners from stalls 7 or higher
- 7/10 – Had run at the course before (4 won)
- 6/10 – Irish bred
- 5/10 – Won last time out
- 5/10 – Favourites unplaced
- 4/10 – Winners priced 20/1 or bigger
- 3/10 – Ridden by Jim Crowley (last 2)
- 2/10 – Winning favourites
- The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 14/1
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