Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew signed off September with Killarney winner RUBY DOOBIE and has two stats-based selections on Sunday, October 1st. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
TIPPERARY 2.40
YERMANTHERE (system – Fast Company, soft or heavy going)
YERMANTHERE, a wide-margin 7.5f Roscommon handicap winner on yielding to soft going on his penultimate start, found conditions faster than ideal when a close-up third over a slightly shorter trip at the same venue last time. He’s up in class today but the officially ‘soft to heavy’ ground will suit, and progeny of Fast Company are 133 from 982 (13.5% strike-rate) on officially soft or heavy going on the Flat for a profit of £31.77 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners only 103.46, A/E = 1.29), suggesting that he’s worth a small each-way punt at odds of around 20-1.
FFOS LAS 2.55
ARIZONA DESERT (system – Sioux Nation, small fields)
Sioux Nation won the 2017 Norfolk Stakes in a field of 17 runners, but he raced with just three rivals on the far side of the track. His other three wins came in fields of just five, seven and eight runners and his small-field preference seems to have been passed on to his progeny. Backing juvenile progeny of Sioux Nation in fields of ten or fewer runners would have found 43 winners from 190 bets (22.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £122.29 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 34.3, A/E = 1.25). ARIZONA DESERT, drawn away from where the action unfolded when a close-up third at Newcastle last time, can break his duck in this six-runner nursery.
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Related
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