Use our 2023 July Cup trends to find the best profiles based on past winners of the race. The valuable Group One race has seen 95% of the last 21 winners aged 5 or younger, while 76% of those successful horses also ran at Royal Ascot last time out.
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July Cup Trends to Help You Find The 2023 Winner
The ÂŁ600,000 July Cup Stakes is one of the big feature sprints on the UK flat horse racing calendar and this year we look set for another cracking renewal at Newmarket races this Saturday.
Commonwealth Cup winner Shaquille will be the idea of the winner for many horse racing fans after recovering from a bad start to land that Royal Ascot Group One last month – beating Little Big Bear in the process – and has now won 6 of his 7 career starts. Rossa Ryan will ride with his jockey from last time, Oisin Murphy, suspended.
Another July Cup runner is Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes shock hero Khaadem, who was supplemented for the race for ÂŁ36,000, while Duke Of Clipper Stakes winner Azure Blue is also set to make her return – she’ll be looking to become the second winning filly in as many years.
So, to help find the winner – let’s look at the key 2023 July Cup trends to look out for and hopefully by applying these to the final runners it will help point you in the direction of Saturday’s big Newmarket Group One.
When Is The 2023 July Cup?
đź“…Time/Date: Saturday 15th July 2023
🏇Racecourse: Newmarket (July course), Suffolk (6 furlongs)
đź“ş TV: ITV/ Racing TV
đź’° Winner: ÂŁ340,260
🎲 July Cup Odds: Shaquille 7/4 | Azure Blue 11/4 | Kinross 5/1 | Little Big Bear 6/1
2023 July Cup Trends
- 20/21 – Aged 5 or younger
- 19/21 – Had won over 6f before
- 17/21 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
- 16/21 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
- 16/21 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
- 16/21 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
- 16/21 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
- 12/21 – Placed last time out
- 10/21 – Ran last time out in either the King’s Stand Stakes or QEII Jubilee Stakes
- 10/21 – Unplaced favourites
- 8/21 – Won their previous race
- 5/21 – Winning favourites
- 4/21 – Irish-trained winners (O’Brien trained 2 of the last 5 winners)
- 3/21 – Filly winners
- 2/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2 of the last 5)
- 2/21 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
- 1/21 – French-trained winners
- The average winning SP in the last 12 years is 7/1
- Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
- Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times before (1999, 2001, 2010, 2018 & 2019)
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95% Of The Last 21 July Cup Winners Aged 5 Or Younger
The first July Cup trend to have in your corner is the age as this sprint tends to go to the younger speedsters.
A massive 20 of the last 21 July Cup winners were aged 5 or younger, with just Les Arcs (aged 6) bucking this age stat in 2006. In fact, since 1968 only one winner was aged older than 5, with the last 8 winners aged 3 and 4 years-old.
With this Newmarket trend in mind, the 6 year-old Kinross and the supplemented Khaadem at 7 years-old will have this to overcome.
Look For Horses With 1-3 Runs That Season
Next up is to note horses that had between 1-3 runs that season as this stat has kicked in 16 times in the last 21 years. Yes, most will fit the bill here but it’s another negative for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes winner Khaadem, who has had 5 runs this term.
A Recent Run at Royal Ascot Is Another Plus
Royal Ascot form and a run at the big meeting in June is another trend to look out for. In recent times 16 of the last 21 July Cup winners took in a race at Royal Ascot before winning this Group One.
With 10 of the last 21 winners having run in either the King’s Stand Stakes or the QEII Jubilee Stakes last time out.
The main players that ran at Ascot last time out are – Shaquille, who won the Commonwealth Cup, Kinross (7th QEII Jubilee Stakes), Khaadem (1st QEII Jubilee Stakes) and Lezoo (10th Commonwealth Cup).
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The Favourites Have Won 38% Of Recent Renewals
The July Cup has also not been a bad race for the market leaders with 5 of the last 21 winning. The last favourite to win was Limato in 2016, with this year’s jolly with the best UK bookmakers set to be the Julie Camacho-trained Shaquille.
Last Time Out Winners Have a Fair Record
Last time out winners have been responsible for 38% of the last 21 winners too – which is a fair return in what is often a competitive Group One race.
Of the main players, Shaquille, Azure Blue ad Khaadem all head here off the back of wins.
Just 3 Filly Winners Since 2002, But One Was Last Year
Alcohol Free was flying the ‘girl power’ flag last year and in the process became the third winning filly of the July Cup since 2011. Prior to her it was Fleeting Spirit (2009) and Frizzante (2004) that won for the ladies.
This year, Azure Blue is one of the leading fillies in the race.
Trainer Aidan O’Brien and Jockey Ryan Moore Are Respected
The powerful combo of Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore are always a force to be feared in most races and the July Cup is no exception.
This race has seen 5 past winners for O’Brien and two for Moore, with their most recent being US Navy Flag (2018) and Ten Sovereigns (2019). Before that Aidan O’Brien mopped up the prize with Starspangledbanner in 2010, plus hit the right notes with Mozart (2001) and Stravinsky (1999).
O’Brien has Little Big Bear entered to try and improve his July Cup record.
Recent July Cup Winners
- 2022Â Â Â Â Alcohol Free (14/1)
- 2021Â Â Â Â Starman (9/2)
- 2020 Â Â Â Â Oxted (12/1)
- 2019Â Â Â Â Ten Sovereigns (9/2)
- 2018Â Â Â Â U S Navy Flag (8/1)
- 2017Â Â Â Â Harry Angel (9/2)
- 2016Â Â Â Â Limato (9/2 fav)
- 2015Â Â Â Â Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
- 2014Â Â Â Â Slade Power (7/4 fav)
- 2013Â Â Â Â Lethal Force (9/2)
July Cup Betting Odds
We take a look at the latest 2023 July Cup betting odds from BetUK, where you can also get a ÂŁ30 free bet to use on the race.
- Shaquille @ 7/4
- Azure Blue @ 11/4
- Kinross @ 5/1
- Little Big Bear @ 6/1
- Khaadem @ 10/1
- Art Power @ 20/1
- Emaraaty Ana @ 25/1
- Run To Freedom @ 25/1
- Vadream @ 33/1
Note: Odds are subject to change
Note: Odds are subject to change and others on request
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T&Cs apply.. New customers, Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a ÂŁ10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x ÂŁ10 free bets: 1 x ÂŁ10 Horse racing, 1 x ÂŁ10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x ÂŁ10 Football. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. |
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WATCH: Alcohol Free Winning The 2022 July Cup
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