Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Chepstow, Newcastle and Wetherby for his four statistical picks on Tuesday, May 16th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
CHEPSTOW 2.05
JOLLY SAILOR (system – Richard Hannon, second-time out 2yos, May)
Richard Hannon junior, like his Father before him, has a good record with second-time out juveniles in the month of May. In the past ten years, the Hannons are 49 from 137 (35.8% strike-rate) on this angle for a profit of £39.11 to a £1 level stake at SP. Both this year’s previous qualifiers finished second at 5-1 and perhaps JOLLY SAILOR, unruly in the paddock before his debut sixth at Bath, can take a big step forward at what should be a nice price.
NEWCASTLE 2.15
GOUET DES BRUYERES (system – best fresh)
GOUET DES BRUYERES seems best with plenty of time between his races, recording form figures of 121 (2-3) in handicaps when rested for at least eight weeks. He could only finish sixth of seven when 9-4 for a Fakenham handicap chase in mid-November when we last saw him but that run came after a break of just 26 days. The 182-day break can be viewed positively, and the early betting market looks to have over-reacted to his latest performance.
WETHERBY 4.50
MARROOF (system – Richard Hannon, second-time out 2yos, May)
Richard Hannon’s MARROOF qualifies as a bet for me on the same system as Jolly Sailor (see 2.05 Chepstow) and the Blue Point colt caught the eye when third to Succession at Bath on his debut. The all-the-way winner was very well backed that day and he did well to finish two and a half lengths back under a patient ride.
WETHERBY 7.00
AULD TOON LOON (system – Belardo, 4yo+, 1m+, Flat)
Older progeny (3yo+) of the sire Belardo are 72 from 441 when racing over 1m or further on the Flat and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £101.80 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 53.32, A/E = 1.35). AULD TOON LOON looks ready for the step up to 1m2f and can get off the mark at the fifth attempt.
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