Chester Horse Racing Trends: Stats To Help Find Wednesday’s ITV Racing Winners

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Use our Chester horse racing trends to help narrow down the search for the winners on a cracking card at the Cheshire track. These Chester stats will give you a chance to whittle the runners to find the best profiles based on past winners of the races.

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Chester Horse Racing Trends: Live ITV4 Racing Stats for Wednesday 10th May 2023

See below the key horse racing trends for the five LIVE ITV4 races at Chester on Wednesday, that includes the Chester Vase and Cheshire Oaks.


RELATED: Chester Horse Racing Free Bets: Claim ÂŁ160 In Betting Offers For Chester May Meeting


Chester Horse Racing Trends: Lily Agnes Stakes Stats

Run at a blistering pace, the opening Chester May Meeting contest is always the 5f Lily Agnes Stakes for the 2 year-olds. Being a tight turning track, then having a low draw is key over these sprint trips – with the last 7 winners all coming from stalls 5 or lower. Many feel draw 1 is favoured even more, but we’ve actually only had on winner from the inside berth in the last 15 years – Ziggy’s Phoenix will be trying to end that run.

1:30 – Caa Stellar Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes (GBB/IRE Incentive Race) Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV4

  • 20/20 – Had a recent run that season
  • 19/20 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 16/20 – Had won over 5f before
  • 15/20 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
  • 14/20 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd
  • 14/20 – Won last time out
  • 11/20 – Horses from stall 2 finished in the top 3
  • 11/20 – Came from stalls 1-3
  • 7/20 – Winning favourites4/20 – Came from stall 1 (but just 1 in the last 15 years)
  • 3/20 – Trained by Mark Johnston (3 of the last 8 years)
  • 2/20 – Trained by David Evans
  • The horse from stall 5 has won 5 of the last 15 runnings
  • The last 7 winners came from stall 5 or lower

RELATED: Top Free Horse Racing Tips & Advice for UK Betting Today


Chester Horse Racing Trends: Tote Handicap Stats

A tricky handicap next and another run over the minimum 5f trip and so the low draw comes into play again. This is backed up with 5 of the last 6 winners hailing from stalls 2-4 (inc), so Carmela, Seantrabh and Michaela’s Boy the ones that fit the bill on that draw stat. Also note horses carrying 8st 12lbs or less, while 35% of the last 20 winners had run at the track in the past too.

2.05 – tote Guaranteed Placepot Every Day Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 5f ITV4

  • 20/20 – Winners from stall 7 or lower
  • 19/20 – Had won before over this trip
  • 16/20 – Winners came from stalls 1-4
  • 14/20 – Carried 8-12 or less
  • 14/20 – Had run before that season
  • 12/20 – Favourites that finished in the top three
  • 7/20 – Returned a double-figure price
  • 7/20 – Had won before at Chester
  • 5/20 – Won their last race
  • 5/20 – Winning favourites
  • 2/20 – Trained by Tim Easterby
  • 5 of the last 6 winners came from stalls 2-4 (inc)
  • The last 14 winners returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting

Chester Horse Racing Trends: Cheshire Oaks Stats

The Cheshire Oaks is a prize the Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien likes to win – he’s taken this prize four times since 2015 and each time jockey Ryan Moore had been riding. The pair team up again here with recent Leopardstown scorer Savethelastdance.

2.40 – Weatherbys Digital Solutions Cheshire Oaks (for the Robert Sangster Memorial Cup) (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m3f79y ITV4

  • 17/20 – Had not won over this trip (or further) before
  • 17/20 – Had a previous run that season
  • 17/20 – Favourites that finished in the top three
  • 14/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 12/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
  • 11/20 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
  • 9/20 – Won their last race
  • 7/20 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
  • 5/20 – Winners from stall 4
  • 5/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
  • 3/20 – Trained by John Gosden
  • 2/20 – Winners that went onto win the Epsom Oaks
  • None of the last 20 winners had run at Chester before

Chester Horse Racing Trends: Chester Vase Stats

Another race the Aidan O’Brien camp have a fine record in – winning 7 of the last 9 runnings, including last year with Changingoftheguard, who went onto finish 5th in the Epson Derby – they run Adelaide River this time. However, it’s a race the Frankie Dettori-ridden Arrest will be all the rage as this 3 year-old looks to give trainer John Gosden his first win in the race.

3.15 – Boodles Chester Vase Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 (3yo) 1m4 1/4f ITV4

  • 19/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
  • 17/20 – Finished third or better last time out
  • 17/20 – Had a previous run that season
  • 15/20 – Went onto finish 8th or better in the Epsom Derby
  • 14/20 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd in this race
  • 10/20 – Didn’t win their previous race
  • 10/20 – Came from stalls 1 or 2
  • 10/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (7 of last 9 winners)
  • 8/20 – Winning favourites
  • 8/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (6 of last 9 winners)
  • 2/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
  • Just one winner in the last 20 years went onto win the Epsom Derby winner (2013 – Ruler Of The World)

Chester Horse Racing Trends: Camden Pale Handicap Stats

Back to a handicap here, which is run over 6f, but with 8 of the last 11 winners hailing from stalls 4 or higher, then being drawn really low isn’t that much help. 73% of the last 11 winners also carried 9st 2lbs or less, finished in the top 5 last time out and also had won between 1-2 times. Combine all these stats up and Winter Crown, Kessaar Power, Minnesota Lad and King’s Crown stand out.

3.45 – Camden Pale Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-95) 6f ITV4

10/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Won between 1-2 times before
8/11 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
8/11 – Winners from stalls 4 or higher
8/11 – Placed favourites
8/11 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
7/11 – Had won over 6f before
6/11 – Rated between 78-80
6/11 – Had run at the track before
2/11 – Winning favourites
1/11 – Winners from stall 1

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