Use our key Newmarket horse racing trends to help find the winners at Saturday’s top-notch 2000 Guineas card at the Classic track. These Newmarket stats will give you a chance to narrow down the runners to find the best profiles based on past winners of the races.
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Newmarket Horse Racing Trends: Live ITV Racing Stats for Saturday 6th May 2023
See below the key horse racing trends for the five LIVE ITV races at Newmarket on Saturday, that include the first English Classic of the new season the Qipco 2000 Guineas.
RELATED: 2000 Guineas Trends: Key Stats To Find Saturday’s Newmarket Winner
Newmarket Horse Racing Trends: Ellen Chaloner Stakes
The opening ITV race at Newmarket this Saturday is a Listed affair and with 67% of the last 9 winners aged 3 then this is a decent trend to note. Also respect horses that DIDN’T win last time out and had won just 1 or 2 times in the past.
2.15 – Howden British EBF Ellen Chaloner Stakes (Listed Race) (Formerly The Kilvington Stakes) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV4
- 9/9 – Aged between 3-5
- 9/9 – Won over 5f or 6f before
- 8/9 – Won between 1-2 times before
- 8/9 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
- 7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
- 7/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
- 7/9 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
- 6/9 – Aged 3 years-old
- 6/9 – Placed favourites
- 5/9 – Came from stalls 11 (3) or 7 (2)
- 3/9 – Winning favourites
- 2/9 – Trained by William Haggas (2 of the last 4)
- 3 of the last 6 winners came from stall 11
- The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1Note: The race was formerly run at Nottingham from 2021 back
Newmarket Horse Racing Trends: Howden Handicap Stats
A competitive handicap next but with 90% of the last 10 winners aged 4 or 5 this should help whittle down the runners. It’s also a race that’s seen 8 of the last 10 winners failed to win their most recent race, while 70% of those winners also carried 9st 3lbs or more in weight – which would only see 6 qualifying horses from the field of 23 – Summerghand, Saint Lawrence, Spirit Of Light, Tabdeed, Silver Samurai and Lethal Levi.
2.50 – Howden Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 6f ITV4
- 9/10 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
- 9/10 – Won 3+ times before
- 9/10 – Had won over 6f before
- 8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
- 7/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
- 7/10 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
- 7/10 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
- 7/10 – Returned 13/2 or bigger
- 6/10 – Rated 100+
- 6/10 – Ran at Newmarket before (Rowley)
- 6/10 – Unplaced favourites
- 3/10 – Winning favourites
- 2/10 – Richard Fahey
- 0/10 – Winners from stalls 1 or 2
- 6 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
- Blackrod won the race in 2022
- The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1
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Newmarket Horse Racing Trends: Suffolk Stakes Stats
Another tricky handicap here with 17 runners to wade through. 4 and 5 year-old have the best record in recent years – winning 13 of the last 17 runnings, plus we’ve also seen 82% of winners (last 17) carry 9st or less in weight. If this weight stat is to be repeated, then the top 11 on the card can be ruled out.
3.25 – Suffolk Stakes Handicap Cl2 1m1f ITV4
- 16/17 – Had won at least twice before
- 16/17 – Had won over at least a mile before
- 14/17 – Priced 12/1 or shorter
- 14/17 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
- 14/17 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
- 13/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
- 12/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
- 10/17 – Returned between 9/1 and 12/1 in the betting
- 11/17 – Rated between 90 and 96
- 9/17 – Aged 4 years-old
- 9/17 – Having their first run of the season
- 6/17 – Won last time out
- 5/17 – Irish bred
- 3/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
- 2/17 – Winning favourites
- 2/17 – Trained by Andrew Balding
- Just 1 winner from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 14 runningsor shorter in the betting
Newmarket Horse Racing Trends: Palace House Stakes Stats
Course form has been an advantage in the past with 15 of the last 20 Palace House Stakes winners ticking this stat. Horses aged 6+ have also struggled a bit in recent years, which would rule out a handful. It’s also a race that the top three in the betting have done well – winning 70% of the last 20 renewals. At this stage, Twilight Calls and Manaccan are the likely favourites.
4.00 – Howden Palace House Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV4
- 18/20 – Had won over 5f before
- 18/20 – Won 3 or more times before
- 17/20 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
- 17/20 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
- 17/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
- 15/20 – Had run at Newmarket before
- 14/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 14/20– Aged 5 or younger
- 14/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
- 12/20 – Placed favourites
- 12/20 – Rated between 108 and 114
- 10/20 – Won last time out
- 7/20 – Winning favourites
- 5/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
- 2/20 – Trained by Bryan Smart
- 2/20 – Ridden by William Buick (last 2 runnings)
- Just 3 placed horses from stall 1 in the last 15 runnings
- 5 of the last 7 runnings went to 4 year-olds
- 8 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 2-7 (inc)
Newmarket Horse Racing Trends: 2000 Guineas Stakes Stats
The main event and all eyes will be on trainer Aidan O’Brien, who has won this English Classic 10 times and is the most successful handler in the race’s history. He’s got the red-hot favourite Auguste Rodin to try and make it 11 wins, plus also has the likely 2000 Guineas second favourite in Little Big Bear. Frankie Dettori will be riding in the race for the last time too and he’ll be looking to go out on a bang with the Andrew Balding-trained Chaldean. But the pocket Italian fell off this horse in the Greenham last time out at the stalls in a freak accident.
Horses drawn 12 or lower have the best recent record – winning 17 of the last 21 -with draws 1 and 3 having the best time of it of late with a 38% strike-rate.
4.40 – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV4
- 21/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
- 19/21 – Had won over at least 7f before
- 19/21 – Had won a Group race before
- 19/21 – Had won between 2-5 times before
- 17/21 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
- 17/21 – Won last time out
- 16/21 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
- 15/21 – Having their first run of the season
- 14/21 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
- 13/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
- 13/21 – Placed favourites
- 12/21 – Won by an Irish-based yard
- 12/21 – Irish bred
- 9/21 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
- 9/21 – Had won over a mile before
- 8/21 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 3
- 6/21 – Winning favourites
- 6/21 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
- 4/21 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
- 3/21 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
- 8 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
- The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 10/1
Other 2,000 Guineas Facts
- Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019
- Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016
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