Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the Flat meetings at Salisbury, Redcar and Lingfield for his three stats-based selections on Thursday, May 4th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
SALISBURY 1.40
LIV MY LIFE (system – Richard Hannon, second-time out 2yos, May)
Richard Hannon’s juveniles often improve for their debut runs and have a great record at the second time of asking, especially early in the season. Since the beginning of 2010, had we backed Hannon-trained two-year-olds in May who were having their second career outing we’d have found 117 winners from 513 bets (22.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £100.90 to a £1 level stake at SP. LIV MY LIFE made a pleasing debut at Newmarket and looks certain to benefit from her initial experience.
REDCAR 2.20
MADGE MCSPLASH (system – Steph Hollinshead/Clifford Lee trainer/jockey combination)
Clifford Lee is seven from 27 (25.9%) when riding for Steph Hollinshead and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £19.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those seven wins came from just two horses – Al Simmo and Albeseeingyer – but two of MADGE MCSPLASH’s half siblings went close at double-figure odds on their debuts and she could surprise.
LINGFIELD 5.00
PHENOMENON (system – sire Rajasinghe, headgear)
Progeny of the sire Rajasinghe have done well when fitted with headgear, landing six of their 21 starts for a small profit of £10.08 to the usual £1 level stake at SP. Three of those wins came in first-time cheekpieces and PHENOMENON, beaten a half-length in a course and distance maiden in November, might do better with headgear fitted for the first time.
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