Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Sandown, Southwell and Doncaster for his four stats-based selections on Friday, April 28th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
SANDOWN 4.40
RATHGAR (system – Charles Bishop, fields of four or fewer runners)
Jockey Charles Bishop is switched on when it comes to being in the right place in small field/tactical affairs and had we backed him in fields of two, three or four runners, since the spring of 2016, we’d have won 23 of our 59 bets (39%) and made a profit of £33.27 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 13.97). RATHGAR faces just three rivals in this 1m2f handicap and looks worth a bet.
SOUTHWELL 5.10
COMMANDER OF TEN (system – Michael Scudamore, handicap chase debutants, ran over hurdles last time out)
Michael Scudamore has a good record with his handicap chase debutants, scoring with 12 of the 71 qualifiers in the past 15 years for a profit of £20.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who ran over hurdles last time were ten from 52 for a profit of £29.75 (expected winners = 5.72). COMMANDER OF TEN finished well beaten over hurdles at Exeter last time but that run, his first for four months and first since a wind operation, would have been needed and he looks worth chancing on his debut over the larger obstacles.
DONCASTER 5.35
DON’T WHAT ME BOY (system – Alice Haynes, handicap debutants)
The Alice Haynes-trained DON’T WHAT ME BOY has finished well held at big prices in three maiden/novice contests on the all-weather this spring, but the son of Dandy Man could be one to side with now that he makes his handicap debut. The switch to slow turf is unlikely to inconvenience on breeding and his progressive yard is eight form 37 with handicap debutants for a profit of £73.88 to a £1 level stake at SP.
SOUTHWELL 5.40
YOUNG AT HEART (system – Lucy Wadham, second run in a bumper)
Lucy Wadham does well with runners having their second career outing in a national hunt flat race, scoring with ten of the 55 qualifiers since 2010 for a profit of £56.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. YOUNG AT HEART, sent off as the 11-4 favourite when a close-up third at Fakenham on her debut on April 10th, can go two places better this evening.
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