Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found another winner on Thursday and has three stats-based picks at Lingfield, Kelso and Dundalk on Friday, February 17th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
LINGFIELD 3.20
FARASI LANE (system – Belardo, 3yo+, 1m+, all-weather)
Progeny of the sire Belardo tend to improve with time/distance and simply backing all those aged three or older who were running over one mile or further on the Flat would have found 62 winners from 387 bets (16% trike-rate) for a profit of £87.14 to a £1 level stake at SP. FARASI LANE drew a blank last year but caught the eye on his comeback earlier this month when a 20-1 sixth over course and distance. That was his first run following a wind operation and there could be improvement to come.
KELSO 3.35
WEST CORK (system – Midnight Legend hurdlers, second run after a wind operation)
Progeny of the sire Midnight Legend have a good record on their second run following wind surgery, especially the handicap hurdlers. Eight of the 35 qualifiers won for a profit of £36.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.15). Several of the beaten horses made the frame and WEST CORK, pulled up in a Doncaster handicap chase last month on his first start following the wind operation, but might do better now returned to hurdles.
DUNDALK 4.55
SENADO SQUARE (system – Mayson, gelded since last run)
Progeny of the sire Mayson have a 14 from 76 record (18.4% strike-rate) on their first outing since gelded and backing them all would have returned a profit of £22.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. In handicaps only the profit increases to £31.38. SENADO SQUARE makes his all-weather/handicap debut on the back of three unplaced efforts in maidens on soft/heavy ground and looks likely to improve for gelding and the switch to Polytrack.
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