Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found Catterick winner GIT MAKER on Wednesday and has three stats-based selections on Thursday, January 26th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
SOUTHWELL 12.25
INFINITIVE (system – stable switchers, David O’Meara, best speed figure)
David O’Meara has a solid record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers and those who had the highest career speed figure (according to Proform’s ratings) won 17 of their 57 starts (30%) for a profit of £18.08 to a £1 level stake at SP. Five-race maiden INFINITIVE, ex-Sir Michael Stoute, finished second in both course outings for her old yard and can break her duck this afternoon.
WETHERBY 2.35
THE PADDY PIE (system – Sue Smith, January)
Trainer Sue Smith has a fantastic record in the month of January, scoring with 63 of her 243 runners since 2014 (26%) for a profit of £177.57 to a £1 level stake at SP. She has four runners at Wetherby today and THE PADDY PIE, an all-the-way winner here on Boxing Day and second by half a length in this race last year, could prove to be the best value of her quartet.
WETHERBY 3.10
ETALON (system – Harry Skelton, hurdles/bumpers at Wetherby)
On soft/heavy going it is usually a big advantage to race wide on the hurdles/bumper course at Wetherby and jockey Harry Skelton is well aware of the the bias. Had we backed all his course runners over hurdles or in national hunt flat races we’d have found 48 winners from 148 bets (33.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £10.94 to a £1 level stake at SP. Siding only with those who were in the first four in the betting would have increased the profit to £34.94 thanks to 48 winners from 118 bets (40.7% strike-rate). ETALON, forecast by the Racing Post to start as the 6-4 favourite, has placed in all three previous starts and can get off the mark at the fourth attempt.
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