Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
There’s just the two AW meetings – Lingfield and Kempton – on Wednesday but Andrew has uncovered some interesting statistical pointers. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
LINGFIELD 1.15
FULL INTENTION (system – Simon Pearce/David Probert trainer/jockey combination, Polytrack)
David Probert has an eight from 35 record when riding on Polytrack for Simon Pearce and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £39.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. FULL INTENTION, a Chelmsford winner under Probert on his penultimate start, disappointed when apprentice-ridden at Kempton next time but could bounce back now that the main man is back on board.
KEMPTON 5.30
CRAZY MAISIE (system – Belardo, 3yo+, 1m+)
Progeny of the sire Belardo tend to improve with time/distance and had we simply bet all the Flat horses aged three plus who were running over 1m or further we’d have won 62 of our 378 bets (16.4% strike-rate) and made a profit of £96.14 to a £1 level stake at SP. CRAZY MAISIE contributed with a 7-2 Newcastle win for Ivan Furtado in September and I’m happy to forgive her 20-1 tenth of 13 at Lingfield on her debut for Mark Hoad, as she did too much too soon and helped to set the race up for the closers. She still clocked a good speed figure for that effort – the second-best last-time-out figure according to Proform’s ratings – and she could run well if avoiding an early skirmish for the lead with Moonlit Cloud.
KEMPTON 6.30
SHOT (system – Tom Ward, stable switchers, all-weather)
SHOT isn’t best drawn in stall 10 but could still be worth chancing on her debut for Tom Ward in this 6f handicap. She showed promise on turf for Richard Hannon and Ward has a solid record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, scoring with five of the 17 qualifiers on the all-weather for a profit of £26.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. At Kempton only, his record is 74102122441 (4-11) for a profit of £27.50. She’s been given an opening handicap mark of 65, which allows her to get into this Class 6 contest under top weight.
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