Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Newcastle, Sandown, Lingfield and Kempton for his four stats/system recommendations on Saturday, January 7th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWCASTLE 12.13
THEIRSHEGOES (system – Sandy Thomson winter runners)
In-form Sandy Thomson has a cracking record in the depths of winter and backing all his horses in November, December and January, since 2012, would have steered us onto 98 winners from 478 bets (20.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £275.23 to a £1 level stake at SP. THEIRSHEGOES, the first of his two runners today (the other is Sirwilliamwallace in the 1.23 at Newcastle), might be worth an interest on her racecourse debut.
SANDOWN 12.40
MARTELLO SKY (system – Small-field preference)
MARTELLO SKY, who won this Listed 2m4f mares’ hurdle last year, has a fine record in fields of nine or fewer runners over trips shy of three miles. Her record under these conditions stands at 111114112 (7-9) for a profit of £13.61 to a £1 level stake at SP. She faces a very tough rival in Love Envoi, winner of six of her seven starts, but that one can take a keen hold and might ultimately prove best at two miles.
LINGFIELD 1.45
FINE BALANCE (system – Siyouni, 4yo+, Polytrack)
Progeny of the sire Siyouni have a good record on Polytrack and they also tend to improve with age. Backing all those aged four or older at Chelmsford, Dundalk, Kempton and Lingfield would have found 38 winners from 197 bets (19.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £62.10 to the usual £1 stake. FINE BALANCE, third on Wolverhampton’s Tapeta on her debut for George Boughey, should appreciate the switch to a new surface.
KEMPTON 8.30
DELVEY (system – Iffraaj, Kempton AW, 1m3f+ handicaps)
Progeny of the sire Iffraaj have a solid record on Kempton’s Polytrack and backing them blind in handicaps over 1m3f or further would have found 15 winners from 88 bets for a profit of £47.33 (expected winners = 8.84). DELVEY wasn’t entirely disgraced when a 40-1 seventh of 13 at Lingfield on her handicap debut last month and the booking of Hollie Doyle takes the eye.
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