Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Kempton (all-weather), Ludlow (jumps) and Southwell (all-weather) for three stats-based picks on Friday, January 6th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
KEMPTON 1.45
SENSE OF SECURITY (system – George Baker, 7f handicaps, Kempton)
Since 2011, trainer George Baker has a 19 from 101 record in 7f handicaps on the all-weather at Kempton for a profit of £69.88 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 10.07). If we ignore those who were returning from more than 150 days off the track his record is 19 from 87 (+83.88). SENSE OF SECURITY is a 15-race maiden, but he’s placed over 6f and 1m on his last two course visits and this in-between trip should prove ideal.
LUDLOW 2.00
FIRE DANCER (system – Venetia Williams, chasers, first run after a wind operation)
Venetia Williams-trained chasers are 13 from 34 on their first run following wind surgery and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £66.83 to the usual £1 stake. FIRE DANCER hasn’t been seen on a racecourse for 815 days but represents leading owner Mrs S Ricci and the seven-year-old, twice a winner over hurdles in France, can make up for lost time on his seasonal and stable debut.
SOUTHWELL 7.45
SHOT OF LOVE (system – Mick Appleby, stable switchers)
Mick Appleby has a phenomenal record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers, scoring with 90 of the 516 qualifiers (17.4%) since the beginning of 2010 for a huge profit of £300.15. SHOT OF LOVE started at single-figure prices in both starts in 7f Curragh maidens for Ger Lyons and while we might not see the best of this colt until handicapping, it could be worth having a small each-way interest on his stable debut.
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