Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found 5-1 Uttoxeter winner BAK ROCKY on Saturday and starts the new year with five stats-based selections at Cheltenham, Exeter, Catterick and Fakenham on Sunday, January 1st. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
EXETER 12.20
DIBBLE DECKER (system – Tom Lacey, first-time cheekpieces)
Tom Lacey has good recent record when using first-time cheekpieces, scoring with seven of the 24 qualifiers since the beginning of 2020 for a profit of £22.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. Five of the beaten horses ran second or third and several more were fourth. DIBBLE DECKER has the headgear on for the first time and will also appreciate the return to a right-handed track after his disappointing fifth of six at left-handed Chepstow on his latest outing. He jumped out to his right that day and both his wins over hurdles came on right-handed tracks – ay Huntingdon (good to soft) and Taunton (soft).
CATTERICK 12.40
PARELLIROC (system – Sue Smith, January)
Trainer Sue Smith has a great record in the month of January, scoring with 60 of her 234 runners since 2014 (25.6% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £141.07 to a £1 level stake at SP. Her four runners today include PARELLIROC, who might be worth a speculative each-way interest at a big price on his first start following a wind operation, despite the obvious concern that we won’t see the best of him until he goes handicapping.
CHELTENHAM 12.45
SWITCH HITTER (system – Paul Nicholls, first-time cheekpieces. Finished fourth or worse last time out)
Paul Nicholls has a solid record when using first-time cheekpieces, especially on horses who finished fourth or worse on their latest start. Since 2010, he’s won with 30 of the 130 qualifiers (23.1%) for a profit of £33.97. In chases only, he’s 20 from 69 (29%) for a profit of £55.55. Progeny of the sire Scorpion often improve for cheekpieces and SWITCH HITTER, seventh of eight at this venue on last month’s reappearance, is worth chancing at a big price.
EXETER 12.55
WHISKY EXPRESS (system – Harry Fry, Exeter runners)
In-form Harry Fry has sent out 45 winners from 155 runners at Exeter (29% strike-rate) and putting a tenner on all of them would have netted you £613.80 at SP. WHISKY EXPRESS is the first of his three runners today and, like Dibble Decker (see 12.20), wears first-time-cheekpieces. She has hung to the left in her last two races, including a respectable 9-1 fourth of 15 here at Exeter, and the headgear might correct that trait.
FAKENHAM 1.45
ANOTHER MYSTERY (system – Lucy Wadham, Fakenham)
This century, simply backing all Lucy Wadham-trained runners at Fakenham would have found 61 winners from 238 bets (25.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £56.62. ANOTHER MYSTERY, the first of her two runners today, has undergone wind surgery since pulling up at Market Rasen in November and the operation, along with the first-time cheekpieces, could see him break his duck.
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Related
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