Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found 4-1 Catterick scorer BOLLSOVER BILL on Wednesday and has three more stats-based picks on Thursday, December 29th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
LIMERICK 12.20
FORZA MILAN (system – 10yos in veterans’ handicap chases)
Ten-year-olds, the youngest age group eligible to take part in veterans’ handicap chases, outscore their older rivals by some way. We can’t make money by backing all the ten-year-olds but siding with the ones who finished sixth or worse on their latest start has proved to be a good angle, with 69 winners from 455 runners (15.2%) for a profit of £112.32 to a £1 level stake at SP. The qualifiers were often taking younger legs in good races on their latest start and that is certainly the case with FORZA MILAN, who finished a 22-1 eighth in the 3m3f Grade 3 handicap chase at Cheltenham’s November meeting. His wins have come in the mud over trips shy of three miles and he has ideal conditions today.
SOUTHWELL 4.30
SOUTHWOLD (system – Newcastle all-weather debut winners, next time out)
Newcastle all-weather form seems to be underrated, yet those who win on the Tapeta on their racecourse debut often follow up. Since the surface was introduced 44 of the 125 debut winners (35.2%) maintained their 100% record next time and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £24.43. In Class 5 or lower company the strike-rate improves to 52.4% (33 winners from 63 bets) for a profit of £42.41. SOUTHWOLD overcame greenness to land a one-mile novice contest at Newcastle on his debut early last month and can defy a penalty in this Class 5 restricted novice contest.
SOUTHWELL 6.30
SHE’S THE DANGER (system – Roy Bowring, Southwell)
Since Southwell swapped Fibreand for Tapeta, trainer Roy Bowring has a 12 from 43 record at the Nottinghamshire venue for a profit of £40.67 to a £1 level stake at SP. SHE’S THE DANGER was only 11th of 14 over 7f here last time but was stuck out wide in stall 12 in a race dominated by those drawn low-to-middle. The cut back in trip won’t trouble her and she’s better berthed in stall 3 this evening.
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