Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has five stats-based selections at Doncaster, Newcastle (all-weather) and Cheltenham on Saturday, December 10th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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DONCASTER 12.20
MISS MILANO (system – 3m+ handicap hurdles, last-time out winners, top speed)
Staying handicap hurdles (3m+) often go to last-time out winners who clocked a good speed figure (a Proform rating of 67 or higher). Since the beginning of 2012, following this system would have found 117 winners from 427 bets (27.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £109.73 to a £1 level stake at SP. Hat-trick seeker MISS MILANO could be hard to beat.
DONCASTER 12.55
LOUGH DERG ROCCO (system – Laura Morgan chasers)
Simply backing all Laura Morgan-trained chasers in the past five years would have found 67 winners from 298 bets for a profit of £138.50 to the usual £1 stake. Point winner LOUGH DERG ROCCO ran well behind 1-4 shot Gelino Bella on his chase debut at Wetherby and can take a step forward here.
NEWCASTLE 1.44
IMPERIAL ACE (system – Hugo Palmer, Lope De Vega, all-weather)
Hugo Palmer does well with progeny of sire Lope De Vega on the all-weather, scoring with 14 of the 38 qualifiers for a profit of £32.42 (expected winners = 7.84). IMPERIAL ACE, who cost 125,000gns as a yearling, could be up to making a winning debut.
DONCASTER 2.40
FETE CHAMPETRE (system – Rose Dobbin, Doncaster handicaps)
Backing all Rose Dobbin-trained runners in handicaps at Doncaster produces a small profit (£3.75 to a £1 stake) and those who raced withing the past eight weeks are seven from 34 for a profit of £13.75. FETE CHAMPETRE disappointed at Kelso on his return to action but that was his first run for almost a year and was probably needed. He’s worth another chance.
CHELTENHAM 3.35
MARTELLO SKY (system – small field preference)
MARTELLO SKY’s record in fields of nine or fewer runners reads 1111141122 (7-10) for a profit of £12.61 to a £1 level stake at SP and she showed a willing attitude to land this race 12 months ago. I fear NINA THE TERRIER and will save on Alan King’s mare, but Martello Sky is taken to give trainer Lucy Wadham a third straight win in this race.
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Related
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