Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to highlight value selections and shares his thoughts for Saturday below.
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There’s some cracking action on Saturday January 29th and in-form Andrew has five bets at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Kempton. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites:
DONCASTER 1.00
ROQUE IT (system – Paul Nicholls, first-time cheekpieces, fourth or worse last time out)
Trainer Paul Nicholls gets plenty of winners in first-time cheekpieces and the best betting angle is to side with those who were fourth or worse last time out, as they are often underrated in the market. Since the beginning of 2010, this system has thrown up 28 winners from 117 runners for a profit of £38.17 to a £1 level stake at SP. Danny Kirwan, a winner at Wincanton earlier this week, qualified on this system, as does ROQUE IT in this 3m handicap chase.
DONCASTER 2.10
MIRANDA (system – mares’ only company)
Plenty of mares struggle when they take on their male counterparts but have a fantastic record against their own sex, with The Glancing Queen being an obvious example. MIRANDA falls into the same category. The Paul Nicholls-trained seven-year-old has form figures in mares’ only hurdle races for her current handler of 111121 (5-6), with the defeat excusable as she raced on the slowest part of the track on her reappearance at Wetherby this term. She’s a short price and those looking for a bigger return might want to play her in a forecast with MISS HERITAGE, who usually runs well at this time of year.
DONCASTER 3.20
CAP DU NORD (system – track handedness)
CAP DU NORD tends to jump out to his left and it’s surprising that his connections often campaign him on right-handed tracks. His chase record in that directions reads 2429436425548 (0-13), compared to left-handed figures of 451116351130 (5-12). He was third on unsuitably soft ground when favourite for this race last year and is a massive 10lb lower this time around.
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CHELTENHAM 4.15
HIDDEN BEAUTY (system – Ffos Las bumper winners, next time out)
Ffos Las form tends to be underrated but winners of National Hunt Flat Races (‘bumpers’) at that venue often follow up. This angle has produced 43 winners from 130 qualifiers (33.1% trike-rate) for a profit of £42.59. HIDDEN BEAUTY, who overcame obvious signs of inexperience to score at the Welsh venue on her debut in mid-November, can maintain her 100% record.
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KEMPTON 4.30
AMAL (system – sire No Nay Never, Kempton (AW), draw adjusted)
Progeny of the sire No Nay Never have a solid record on Kempton’s Polytrack, landing 15 of their 89 starts for a profit of £25.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. Throw in the proviso that they must be drawn in stall 6 or lower and the figures improve to 13 from 57 for a profit of £46.25. AMAL (stall 1) is 0-8 on the all-weather but only one of those runs came at Kempton when he performed with great credit to finish an 18-1 fifth, just over one length behind the winner. He’s 10lb lower this time around and could sneak into the frame at a big price (he’s forecast at 25-1).
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