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ITV Racing Tips & Trends | York Horse Racing Best Bets: Thurs 12th May

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As we head into the second day (Thursday) at the Dante Festival at York we’ve another top afternoon of flat horse racing to look forward to. The ITV4 cameras are also on the Knavesmire again to take in the first five races, including the Dante Stakes (3:35) – a leading Epsom Derby trial.

Andy Newton is on hand with all the ITV4 York races today with key trends and tips – Yesterday – Gaasee (6/4), Emily Upjohn (4/7) and Samburu (4/5) gave us three winners on this feature.

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RELATED: York Races Today – See All Races at York Today: Betting, silks runners & riders


York Horse Racing Tips and Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Paddy Power ‘Making Flat Less Flat’ Handicap Cl2 5f ITV4

13/13 – Had raced at York before
12/13 – Failed to win last time out
12/13 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/13 – Had run in the last 5 weeks
11/13 – Came from a single-figure draw
11/13 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
10/13 – Aged 6 or older
9/13 – Returned a double-figure price
7/13 – Returned between 8/1 and 16/1
7/13 – Favourites placed
6/13 – Carried 8-10 or less in weight
2/13 – Trained by Tim Easterby (last 2 runnings)
1/13 – Winning favourites
Copper Knight won the race in 2019 and 2021
2021 Winner: Copper Knight (11/2 jfav)

The Mick Appleby runner – Raasel – is a fast-improving sprinter and he looked to have a bit more up his sleeve last time than the head winning margin suggested. He’s interesting and should be finishing off well, but 11 of the last 13 winners came from a single-figure draw – he’s drawn 11.

Alligator Alley, Digital and Bedford Flyer can all go well, while the busy Fine Wine has been running consistently of late and could hit the frame again. But COPPER KNIGHT @ 7/1 with William Hill has landed the last two runnings of this race looks worth sticking with.

Yes, he’s up 19lbs from last year, but he progressed up the ranks again last season and has been rated this high in the past (104). Draw 7 is fine and a recent run at Musselburgh will have him ready for this.

The other that ticks a lot of the trends is JAWWAAL (e/w) @ 11/1 with William Hill. This Michael Dods 7 year-old is back from a break but was 7th in this race 12 months ago and only beaten 3 lengths. He travelled well that day but the draw (11) looked to go against him in the closing stages. He’s got a better berth in 6 this time and will love the quick ground.

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2.25 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV4

17/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/17 – Won over 1m2f before
14/17 – Favourites placed
13/17 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Having first run of the season
10/17 – Winning favourites (including 8 of last 13)
9/17 – Had won at least 4 times before
9/17 – Had raced at York before
5/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/17 – Had won at York before
3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Winners from stall 1
1/17 – Irish trained winners
2021 Winner: Queen Power (6/4 fav)

This looks set to to be a battle between Sir Michael Stoute, who has two leading fancies – Noon Star and Ville De Grace, and the Irish – who send over Thunder Kiss and Forbearance.

Of that bunch, Thunder Kiss is the top-rated in the field and is a big player after a top win at Cork last time out, but is yet to race outside G3 company. Forbearance won a Listed race here last season, but the worry with her is the drop back to 1m2f – all wins last season came over 1m4f+.

So that leaves the Soute runners – Ville De Grace – and NOON STAR @ 7/2 with William Hill. The former was close second at HQ last time out and will be better for that run, but it’s interesting that Ryan Moore, who rode her that day prefers Noon Star.

This 4 year-old was a head Listed Stakes winner at Nottingham last time over 1m2f and has now won 3 of her last 6 races. She was also runer up in the Musidora Stakes here last season so the track is fine, while Moore could not be riding any better at the moment.

3.00 – Paddy Power Hambleton Stakes (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV4

16/16 – Rated between 96-105
15/16 – Had won over a mile before
14/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
13/16 – Favourites placed in the top 4
11/16 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
11/16 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
10/16 – Came from a single-figure draw
10/16 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/16 – Placed last time out
7/16 – Aged 4 years-old
3/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
1/16 – Won last time out
2021 Winner: Kynren (17/2)

With ALL of the last 16 winners rated between 96-105, then the top five on the card – Bless Him, Brunch, Isla Kai, Cruyff Turn and What’s The Story.

Of that lot, it’s hard to ignore the Nigel Tinkler runner – ISLA KAI @ 7/2 with William Hill– who has only had seven career runs and won 4 of them. He returned last months at Newmarket with a cracking 4th of 17 and should now be spot on for this.

Others to note lower down the weights are Hortzador, Redarna, La Trinidad, Lightening Company and Trais Fluors, but CD winner – BRUNCH (e/w) @ 6/1 with William Hill – is the other pick. He was a neck runner-up in this 12 months ago and looks set up for another big display after good runs in the Lincoln (8th) and the G3 Earl Of Sefton Stakes last time at Newmarket.

3.35 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV4

17/19 – Winners that went onto run in the Epsom Derby (4 won)
15/19 – Finished third or better last time out
13/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Had a previous race that season
12/19 – Won their previous race
10/19 – Went onto be placed in the Epsom Derby
5/19 – Had won over 1m2f before
4/19 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
4/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (won it 4 times in all)
3/19 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (won it 6 times in all)
3/19 – Won by jockey Ryan Moore
3/19 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of last 7 runnings)
3/19 – Ridden by William Buick
2/19 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2 of last 5)
2/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
1/19 – Had run at York before
0/19 – Winners from stall 2
Just 2 winning favourites in the last 14 runnings
Golden Horn (2015) was the last Dante winner to go onto win the Epsom Derby
2021 Winner: Hurricane Lane (5/1)

The James Ferguson yard have a nice horse on his hands in El Bodegon, who is sure to be popular when punters see that his last run in October was a 1 1/2 length beating of last Sunday’s easy winner of the Leopardstown Derby Trial – Stone Age.

However, that win came on very soft ground and even though that form has been given a huge boost this 3 year-old colt is yet to race on ground quicker than good-to-soft – that would be the concern.

We can’t ignore anything trainer Aidan O’Brien send to post at the moment – he landed most of the big races at Chester last week and already holds a big hand in the Epsom Derby betting market. He runs Bluegrass here, with Ryan Moore riding. But he was only third last time out at Leopardstown and has so far been unplaced in both runs over 1m2f.

Masekela, for Andrew Balding, has a Derby entry and showed decent form as a 2 year-old last season, but the worry for him and also Royal Partronage, who beat him at HQ last Sept, is getting this longer trip.

So, the two that look the most likely to fight this out are the Gosden runner- Magisterial and the Stoute-trained Desert Crown.

The once-raced Desert Crown is @ 6/1 with William Hill for the Epsom Derby and already has a tall reputation even after just the one run and win. That came at Nottingham last November, but it was an eye-catching 5 1/2 length success. The small worry though is that came on soft ground and he’s also not had a run since – whereas, most of his main rivals have been on the track in the last month or so.

We’ve also only seen 2 winning Dante Stakes favourites in the last 14 runnings, which would be a negative for Desert Crown if he keeps his position at the head of the market.

So, the pick is the Frankel colt – MAGISTERIAL (e/w) @ 5/1 with William Hill. He will be popular with Frankie Dettori also riding and he returned last month with a nice win at Leicester. He’s @ 25/1 with William Hill for the Epsom Derby – odds that will disappear if he can win this.

He’s clearly an improving sort and with three career runs is a fair bit more experienced than Desert Crown (1 run). He also looked to have a bit up his sleeve last time at Leicester and even though this is a big step up in grade he’s got powerful connections that feel he’s up to the task.

4.10 – British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo) 5f ITV4

10/10 – Had won over 5f or 6f in the past
8/10 – Won between 1-2 times before
8/10 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
7/10 – Ran no more than 6 times
7/10 – Rated between 98-103
7/10 – Drawn in stall 1-5
7/10 – Irish bred
6/10 – Placed favourites
6/10 – Had run at the track before
5/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
2021 Winner: Winter Power (5/1)

Boonie got up to win by 3/4 of a length at Nottingham last time out and is only up 4lbs for that here. Khunan and the only CD winner in the field – Project Dante – can be considered too.

However, the Aidan O’Brien yard have a promising sprinter on their hands in KING OF BAVARIA @ 15/8 with William Hill, who was last seen running well in a Listed race at Navan. Prioer to that he won both starts and even though the drop back to 5f might not be totally ideal having stayed on well the last day over 5 1/2f, he’s shown plenty of speed to cope with it.

Of the rest, a saver on LAST CRUSADER (e/w) @ 9/1 with William Hill too with jockey Danny Tudhope having won two of the last four runnings of this. He ran well at Group level last season so this drop into a Listed race will help and will be fitter for a return run at HQ last month.

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York Horse Racing Times and Race Card: Thurs 12th May 2022

  • 1:50 – Paddy Power ‘Making Flat Less Flat’ Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4
  • 2:25 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m2½f ITV4
  • 3:00 – Paddy Power Hambleton Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 1m ITV4
  • 3:35 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2½f ITV4
  • 4:10 – British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 5f ITV4
  • 4:45 – Frank Whittle Partnership EBFstallions.com Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f RTV
  • 5:20 – Fidomoney Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 2m½f RTV

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