With a stack of Cheltenham Festival bankers at this year’s 2024 meeting, favourite backers could have a field day. However, of the 28 races which Cheltenham contests have got the best favourites record over the last 10 years?
There Were Nine Cheltenham Winning Favourites In 2023
Across the 28 races at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival we witnessed NINE winning favourites – this works out at a 32% strike-rate. Therefore, which that in mind, plus a bundle of ‘shorties’ at the 2024 meeting it could pay to know which contests have seen the most market leaders win over the last 10 years.
In contrast, there are also TWO Cheltenham Festival races that HAVEN’T seen a winning jolly in the last 10 renewals – you can find out which ones here.
However, getting back to the page title let’s see which races the best UK horse racing betting sites will be most scared of, when it comes to paying out on a potential winning Cheltenham favourite.
Arkle Novices’ Chase (Tues 12th March, 2024)
- 7/10 Winning Favourites (70%)
- 2023 Winner: El Fabiolo (11/10 fav)
- The Last 3 Favourites Have Won
- Biggest-priced Winner (since 2013): Western Warhorse (33/1)
- Average Winning SP (10 years) 6/1
Trainer Willie Mullins has a stonking 10 past wins in the Arkle Novices’ Chase – including winning the 2023 running with his El Fabiolo, who is a warm order in Wednesday’s Champion Chase.
El Fabiolo (watch below) was also the third winning Arkle Novices’ Chase favourite to win in-a-row and the seventh in the last 10 years.
Meaning the Arkle Novices’ Chase has been one of the best Cheltenham Festival races for favourite backers since 2013 – with a 70% return.
Two of those seven jollies (Douvan and Altior) returned just 1/4, with the biggest-priced winning market leader in the race the 2022 Edwardstone at 5/2.
However, despite the impressive record of the favourites in this Cheltenham race, due to shock 33/1 winner Western Warhorse (2014), plus 16/1 winner Put The Kettle On (2020) this has boosted the average winning SP over the last 10 years to 6/1.
This year’s renewal looks one of the most competitive in recent times – with the likes of Gaelic Warrior, Found A Fifty, Hunters Yarn and Il Etait Temps all big players.
So, could the top favourites record in the Arkle might come under a bit of pressure in 2024?
Champion Hurdle (Tues 12th March, 2024)
- 7/10 Winning Favourites (70%)
- 2023 Winner: Constitution Hill (4/11)
- The Last 4 Favourites Have Won
- Average Winning SP (10 years) 4/1
The other joint-best 2024 Cheltenham Festival race for the favourite is also run on the opening day – the Champion Hurdle.
It’s a contest that’s been dominated by the Irish and trainer Nicky Henderson in recent times – winning 84% of the runnings between them since 1998.
Of course, the big news in the build-up to the 2024 runnings is the absence of Constitution Hill, who will miss the race with a mucus infection, which now paves the way for Willie Mullins to get his fifth win in the race – this time with State Man.
His two-time Irish Champion Hurdle winner is the hot favourite for the Champion Hurdle with the best UK betting sites and the other good news for his backers is the last four market leaders have won and 70% of the last 10.
Over this period, the shortest-priced favourite has been Constitution Hill (4/11) in 2023, with the biggest-priced Annie Power (5/2) in 2016. Meaning if State Man goes off at 1/3 or shorter he’ll the be shortest-price Champion Hurdle winner EVER.
The 2019 shock 5 year-old winner Espoir D’Allen (16/1) and Jezki (9/1) in 2014 have bumped up the average odds in the last 10 years to 4/1, but it still remains that 70% of the last 10 Champion Hurdle winners have returned 5/2 or shorter.
With State Man priced around 1/3 with most of the online gambling sites, the top record of the favourite in this day one feature looks set to continue.
Cheltenham Festival Date and Running Order 2024
Tuesday 12th March 2024
- 1.30: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (2m)
- 2.10: Arkle Novices’ Chase (2m)
- 2.50: Ultima Handicap Chase (3m 1f)
- 3.30: Champion Hurdle (2m)
- 4.10: Mares’ Hurdle (2m 3f)
- 4.50: Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (2m)
- 5.30: National Hunt Chase (3m 5f)
Wednesday 13th March 2024
- 1.30: Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle (2m 5f)
- 2.10: Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (3m)
- 2.50: Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) (2m 5f)
- 3.30: Queen Mother Champion Chase (2m)
- 4.10: Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (3m 5f)
- 4.50: Grand Annual Handicap Chase (2m)
- 5.30: Champion Bumper (2m)
Thursday 14th March 2024
- 1.30: Turners Novices’ Chase (2m 3f)
- 2.10: Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle (3m)
- 2.50: Ryanair Chase (2m 4f)
- 3.30: Stayers’ Hurdle (3m)
- 4.10: TrustATrader Plate (Handicap Chase) (2m 4f)
- 4.50: Mares Novices’ Hurdle (2m)
- 5.30: Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase) (3m 2f)
Friday 15th March 2024
- 1.30: Triumph Hurdle (2m)
- 2.10: County Hurdle (Handicap) (2m)
- 2.50: Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (3m)
- 3.30: Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m 2f)
- 4.10: St James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Hunters’ Chase (3m 2f)
- 4.50: Mares’ Chase (2m 4f)
- 5.30: Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (2m 4f)
Add Sportslens to your Google News Feed!
