Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Newmarket – today’s sole surviving turf fixture – for three stats-based picks on Wednesday, October 25th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWMARKET 2.25
POINT SUR (system – Too Darn Hot, soft or heavy going)
It’s still early days for Too Darn Hot as a sire but the signs are that his progeny will thrive in the mid. Backing only his representatives who ran on soft or heavy going (based on race times, not the official going) would have found seven winners from 27 bets (26%) for a profit of £16.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who started at single-figure odds were seven from 18 for a profit of £25.00. POINT SUR made a pleasing debut on fast ground over course and distance last month, finishing a three-quarters of a length fourth of eight, and can get off the mark on today’s much softer going.
NEWMARKET 4.45
DIFFERENT DRUM (system – Charlton yard, gelded 2yo newcomers on turf, autumn)
Harry & Roger Charlton’s juvenile newcomers usually improve for the run, but the geldings tend to be more forward than the colts/fillies and backing the turf runners in October/November, since 2006, would have returned a profit of £42.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. The sample size is small (three winners from 12 runners) but three of the beaten horses also made the frame at big odds (20-1, 14-1 and 9-1) and it might be worth chancing DIFFERENT DRUM to small stakes from what could be an advantageous draw in stall 11 of 12.
NEWMARKET 5.20
BROADWAY ACT (system – Too Darn Hot, soft or heavy going)
Like stablemate Point Sur (see 2.25 preview), Charlie Appleby’s BROADWAY ACT is a son of Too Darn Hot and bred to appreciate today’s soft conditions. The two-year-old built on a pair of close seconds on Newmarket’s July Course when scoring on fast ground on the Rowley Mile last month and could have plenty more to offer on today’s much slower surface.
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